On 12/11/05, Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Robert Seeberger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <brin-l@mccmedia.com> > Sent: Sunday, December 11, 2005 9:16 AM > Subject: Re: Bitter Fruit > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "Doug Pensinger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <brin-l@mccmedia.com> > > Sent: Sunday, December 11, 2005 12:02 AM > > Subject: Re: Bitter Fruit > > > > > > > Dan wrote: > > > > > >> But, you are putting forth a different question. Whether the Bush > > >> Administration thought Iraq posed a significant threat to the US. > > >> I think that's true. I think, especially after 9-11, they made the > > >> connection, and proof texted the intelligence, ignoring every > > >> caveat, to find proof of what they already knew. And, with all due > > >> respect, I think the "blood for oil" argument is a left wing > > >> parallel of their mythology. > > > > > > But, gee whiz, we've not only got strategic control of the Iraqi oil > > > fields, we've got record high oil prices and oil company profits! > > > Its a win win!! And giant corporate friends of the president get > > > huge no bid contracts! Win, win, win!!! And it's all because of > > > the war on terror, so its all the terrorist's fault. Win, win, win, > > > win!!!! Golly, gee whiz, how convenient is that?!?!! > > > > > > > Has anyone factored in increased demand from China and India as a > > partial reason for higher Oil/Gas prices? > > I seem to recall that was an issue about a year or so ago. > > > Certainly, the increased demand from the Asian sector (which includes China > and India) is an important factor. When oil dropped through the floor in > 1999, there was a combination of factors that included a big spike up in > Iraqi oil exports combined with a lessening of the increase in demand for > oil. A quick google didn't pull up the chart I found a week ago, but I > think that demand from '98 to '99 either went up 1% or was flat. > > So, if Iraq oil production was now at 4 million barrels/day, we would not > have $10.00 oil. We also would not have $60.00 oil. This summer, I read > that the spare production was down to half a million barrels/day. If Iraq > was up at 4, that would be closer to 3. Rough guess from past trends, I'd > say that oil would have stayed near the price it was at in the year or so > before the war if things went as planned. > > One thing that amazes me is how inelastic demand was between $30 oil and > $60 oil. We are starting to see an effect, but 2005 should be a record > year for world oil consumption. This indicates to me, since short term > supply is also fairly inelastic, that oil prices are very sensitive to > relatively minor (in a percentage basis) variations in the supply/demand > balance.
I have been more amazed at the wild price swings at the pump with the smaller swings at wholesale and then the rapid moderation in prices . I had a couple people tell me that work for the larger companies in Houston that pump prices were pulled back to smaller profit margins by the majors in an effort to minimize calls for new taxes. They were making record profits anyway. The actual selling of retail gasoline is not where the big money is. I remember even reading in the 70's it was often a loss leader. Of course, Cheney convincing the EU to release much of their strategic reserve to the US was another factor in the price drop. Some people have said their is an effort going on to damp down price swings and make them more gradual and give more stability to the markets. We no longer have Enron pushing for wild swings to make money on the markets and California and Enron's collapse may have taught a few lessons. Rising demand in China and India, indications that the leaders are starting to recognize peak oil production is now, continued environmental problems affecting refining and production, recognition that Iraq and Saudi may have overproduced and damaged some fields, influence of strategic oil releases, future production in West Africa and the former Soviet Republics.... oil pricing is like the stock market in giving you a lot of factors to consider. -- Gary Denton http://www.apollocon.org June 23-25, 2006 "Boxers or briefs? Both." Easter Lemming Liberal News Digest - http://elemming2.blogspot.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
