> -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > Behalf Of Robert Seeberger > Sent: Sunday, July 09, 2006 11:38 PM > To: Killer Bs Discussion > Subject: Re: An Inconvenient Truth > > Some wind > > power will go in, and wind may creep up to 1%-2% of total energy > > usage in 10 years or so. Other countries, particularly in Asia, will >> use nuclear power. > > But, the US will continue to have political debates in which neither > > party > > will be able to get anything practical passed. > > > > I'm thinking you too conservative on your wind estimates. There have > been some sea changes in the wind industry in just the last 5 years. > > Texas in particular seems poised to take the nations lead in wind > power generation. > Wind looks to make 15% of Texas energy at best in just a few years.
I read through the quoted articles, maybe I missed one or two, and have a few things to note. First of all, all power usage is not electricity. So, the optimistic 15% of electricity usage is really 6%. Second, the quote I think you are referring to indicates 10,000 out of 77,000. So the optimistic number is closer to 13%. The only reason this is important is that, using 13%, we get close to 5% of total energy. Third, the sites you refer to are either promotional sites or articles that quote only the promoters. Important information isn't given. For example, is the power output that is quoted the capacity, or the expected average output? If it is the former, then it cannot be used to determine the fraction of the total power output....since that number is dependant on the wind speed. I'll look some more, but I have a beer that says that, given two numbers...both of which have some validity...marketing people will quote the number that looks better for them. Fourth, optimistic projections by marketing need to be taken with a 100 kg bag of salt. One has to extend the time frame and cut the amount. My usual rule of thumb for something that's doable is multiply time by 2 and divide the promised output by 2. So, 3% of Texas energy in 10-15 years is what I'd take from the articles....and this is probably peak capacity. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
