--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], "Robert Seeberger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Do you believe we are near or past peak oil?
I certainly haven't seen any evidence that we are *past* peak oil, if indeed, there is such a thing. "Near" is, of course, an ambiguous term. > > Because Middle Eastern oil is, roughly, the > > cheapest oil out there, it will be the last oil to be displaced > > by consumption shifting to substitute goods. > > Which is why I suggested we buy now and save what we can for later. Except for the fact that we have to buy Middle Eastern oil at the global market price... so I don't see what you are driving at here. > > That would essentially be a bet on the price of oil increasing > > at a > > rate faster than other assets you could spend your money on. > > > > True, but there is also the consideration that rather than > burning oil > up for fuels and such that we use it to make items with greater > utility. Oil is used to make a great many things in the chemical > industry such as plastics and medicines. Why is using oil for plastic or medicine of greater utility than using oil to transport plastic or medicine? And in any case, the use of oil doesn't change the fact that buying oil and putting it in a hole in the ground is essentially a decision to invest in an asset. You'd be betting that oil prices would be rising at a higher rate than other asset classes available. Its not a completely unreasonable bet, but given the possibility of a recession in China or increased oil production in Alberta, it would also be a bet with plenty of risk. After all, if you had made the same decision in 1980, you'd be looking pretty silly in 1998. JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
