> -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > Behalf Of pencimen > Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2006 11:57 PM > To: Killer Bs Discussion > Subject: Re: 9/11 conspiracies (WAS RE: What should we believe when there > is no reliab... > > "Dan wrote: > > > Their per capita GDP is also 75% of the US. Since we are talking > > about economic costs, let's look at energy usage per unit of GDP > > Can you expand on the connection between energy use and GDP?
First, they are seen to be very strongly correlated. First, let me give the US numbers: Energy GDP 1949 31982 1635 1950 34616 1777 1951 36974 1915 1952 36748 1988 1953 37664 2080 1954 36639 2065 1955 40208 2213 1956 41754 2256 1957 41787 2301 1958 41645 2279 1959 43466 2441 1960 45087 2502 1961 45739 2560 1962 47828 2715 1963 49646 2834 1964 51817 2999 1965 54017 3191 1966 57017 3399 1967 58908 3485 1968 62419 3653 1969 65621 3765 1970 67844 3772 1971 69289 3899 1972 72704 4105 1973 75708 4342 1974 73991 4320 1975 71999 4311 1976 76012 4541 1977 78000 4751 1978 79986 5015 1979 80903 5173 1980 78280 5162 1981 76343 5292 1982 73286 5189 1983 73146 5424 1984 76793 5814 1985 76580 6054 1986 76826 6264 1987 79223 6475 1988 82869 6743 1989 84999 6981 1990 84730 7113 1991 84667 7101 1992 86015 7337 1993 87652 7533 1994 89292 7836 1995 91200 8032 1996 94226 8329 1997 94800 8704 1998 95200 9067 1999 96837 9470 2000 98976 9817 2001 96498 9891 2002 97967 10049 2003 98273 10301 2004 100414 10704 2005P 99894 11049 The GDP growth rate averaged 3.5% per year, while the energy usage growth averaged 2% per year. Normalizing by averages, one can see a good correlation between year to year GDP growth and energy use growth. The RMS variation for the actual data is less than 60% of the RMS variation between randomly selected years. Also, by eyeballing it, you can correlate recessions with either decreases or small increases in energy use. Here are a few more countries. First I will give the average growth rates from '80 to '05. Then, year by year will be given at the end of the post. Energy GDP Growth Growth United States 1.0% 3.1% Australia 3.3% 2.8% China 9.5% 5.3% Japan 2.4% 1.7% S. Korea 6.9% 7.4% Interestingly enough, the US has the best GDP growth/Energy growth of all countries. Second, since the upper limit of real GDP growth is dependant on productivity, the tie between energy usage and GDP becomes evident. Historically, we've improved productivity per worker by having machines extend a worker's capacity. Originally, we could think of it as a steel mill vs. a blacksmith. Now, it more involves things like computers maintaining inventory instead of people. Third, wealthier people have more options. Air conditioning is the foundation of cities such as Miami, Houston, & Phoenix growing as they did. It would be hard to live in this area without air conditioning. Indeed, one of the problems with the poor elderly is that they are liable to die in the heat if they don't use AC. That's a start at least. Dan M. Australia 1980 230,091 2.76 1981 238,288 2.778 1982 232,001 2.895 1983 244,378 2.857 1984 256,110 3.043 1985 267,104 3.158 1986 273,379 3.181 1987 288,038 3.312 1988 299,685 3.476 1989 310,891 3.624 1990 310,528 3.718 1991 311,313 3.709 1992 322,676 3.817 1993 335,249 3.916 1994 349,363 3.918 1995 364,272 4.05 1996 378,078 4.223 1997 394,940 4.56 1998 415,912 4.595 1999 431,550 4.82 2000 440,426 4.833 2001 457,513 4.993 2002 472,195 5.097 2003 490,012 5.093 2004 496,678 5.266 China 1980 160,920 17.503 1981 170,166 17.192 1982 186,456 17.934 1983 206,695 19.01 1984 238,169 20.453 1985 268,157 22.006 1986 291,083 23.226 1987 323,620 24.747 1988 358,151 26.433 1989 372,900 26.943 1990 382,996 26.985 1991 423,410 28.21 1992 483,815 29.251 1993 549,328 31.301 1994 619,795 34.023 1995 685,057 35.154 1996 750,678 35.924 1997 817,023 37.562 1998 880,754 37.003 1999 942,878 36.91 2000 1,018,308 38.798 2001 1,094,681 40.835 2002 1,185,539 42.381 2003 1,295,795 49.727 2004 1,418,895 59.573 Japan 1980 2,065,085 15.224 1981 2,125,664 15.127 1982 2,184,424 14.608 1983 2,219,633 14.342 1984 2,288,862 15.651 1985 2,405,191 15.716 1986 2,476,353 15.734 1987 2,570,331 16.201 1988 2,744,208 17.186 1989 2,889,402 17.75 1990 3,039,693 18.356 1991 3,141,544 18.965 1992 3,172,079 19.202 1993 3,179,933 19.303 1994 3,214,869 20.205 1995 3,279,466 20.711 1996 3,392,112 21.261 1997 3,452,198 21.936 1998 3,416,056 21.522 1999 3,411,426 22.016 2000 3,492,799 22.448 2001 3,499,895 22.177 2002 3,489,295 21.99 2003 3,534,844 22.204 2004 3,630,132 22.624 South Korea 1980 117,063 1.676 1981 124,632 1.707 1982 133,667 1.767 1983 147,966 1.969 1984 160,171 2.098 1985 166,482 2.234 1986 184,161 2.44 1987 204,610 2.749 1988 226,383 3.117 1989 241,652 3.398 1990 263,776 3.81 1991 288,552 4.353 1992 305,507 4.893 1993 324,246 5.475 1994 351,925 5.921 1995 384,193 6.516 1996 411,081 6.867 1997 430,201 7.47 1998 400,713 6.901 1999 438,726 7.549 2000 475,957 7.922 2001 494,217 8.018 2002 528,666 8.423 2003 545,039 8.691 2004 570,347 8.985 _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l