Late - better than never, no? Snippage throughout. I *think* I've got who said what correct...
>On Tue, 5/20/08, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> From: Deborah Harrell [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" wrote: > > > From: Deborah Harrell [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > >Best-case scenario for population reduction is > > >education and economic empowerment for women, as I > > >think Pat pointed out. > > I don't really think the fact that the US has a ZPG > > fertility rate of 2.1 > > while Europe and Japan are at 1.5 and 1.22, > > respectively is the result of > > Japanese women being the most liberated of the three > > developed countries/ecconomic unions. >>Mmm, I didn't use 'liberated;' since the American >>sense of the word has connotations of 'having sex with >>whomever I please, whenever I please'.... The programs I >>referred to (Heifer International and various >>micro-loan systems) are about >>reducing ignorance and poverty.... >>Several studies, as I think others had mentioned, show >>that educating girls/women leads to reduced birthrates. > I agree that ecconomic development and the education of > women have been > correlated with lowering birth rates in underdeveloped > countries. It makes > sense that areas where women cannont have ecconomic > self-sufficiency have > fertility rates far above ZPG...I was also thinking of liberated in > the ecconomic > sense, not sharing the stereotypical male understanding of > a good sex life. Well, Dan, doggonit, be more conscious of your word choices! Don't give -er, confuse - me with ambiguous terms! Can't you type in Gal3 or somesuch, instead of slippery Anglic?! > Japanese culture is complex, but I'd argue that the > requirement of > many/most Japanese women to chose a career or a husband and > family > contributes a great deal to their very low fertility rate. Sounds logical. > > Indeed, the EU and Japan are going to be in > > very interesting positions in 20-50 years, with a > > population that is highly > > skewed towards the aged and is shrinking. The EU's > > population can be > > expected to drop almost 30% every generation while > > Japan's will drop over > > 40%. It is clear that, unless these > > countries/regions show explosive > > increases in their productivity, their GDP will > > become stagnent and their > > relative influence in the world will fall. >>Immigration will probably make up much of that. > Huh? You know that that racial purity is still very > important in Japan, right? Their xenophobia is legend. And the source of many great movies, such as 'Godzilla v. Monster X.' >The immigration rate is so low that the CIA > factbook simply says > it's not available. There are 100k "guest > workers" allowed from poorer > countries and Americans and Europeans are allowed in low > numbers, but > immigration with a path to citizenship is not on the > horizon, even though > Japan has crossed the threshold of deaths>births. Then they will have to adapt, or accept reduced world influence. > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan > Continental Europe is at it's limit concerning > immigration of > non-Europeans...because of the importance of keeping the > ethnic identity of > Europe as it is. This contrasts with the US, which is > clearly on its way > to having non-Hispanic whites as a minority. All I am concerned about is keeping Western culture, as it aspires to be [liberty and justice for all, etc.], alive; I don't care who comes in, *but* I think we ought to have adaptation classes for those unfamiliar with our ideal values (obviously we have plenty of stupid priorities, as one can see from watching a few hours of American TV <pthpthth>). My teacher friends have some interesting and occasionally alarming stories to tell about culture clashes with various immigrant groups. The value of education for all, gender equality under law, no special privileges for a very few (hey, I _did_ say ideals), etc. -- these need to be taught and accepted as the norm. Of course, one ought to have pride in one's cultural roots, while being aware of its limitations. One thing that is so important to ideal Western culture as it is now, is the willingness to question one's assumptions and beliefs, and to alter them if honest reflection shows them to be in error. It takes us a while, but we _have_ demonstrated this...by George, one of the presumptive Presidential candidates is a half-black man; when you and I were children, there were still racially segregated schools and restrooms!!! >>But I believe that, as our Western lifestyle is not >>currently sustainable, we need to reduce not merely >>our numbers, but our 'human footprint.' > But, the US has significantly cut its consumption of most > raw materials and > has been flat (on average) in per capita CO2 output over > the last 17 years or so. We're going to have to do better, if we want to lead the way. And have a viable home in 25+ years. Short of a technological breakthrough in solar or cold fusion power, I see no way to keep on our comsumption spree (and I chose that word Anglicly ;} ), so we must reduce. >The big increase comes from countries like China > pulling themselves > out of abject poverty. I really don't think it > practical to expect > everyone to accept poverty to avert global warming. The > costs of global > warming are much smaller than that cure. Which is why 'green tech' ought to be a massive priority. From a health standpoint, I believe global warming is a Damoclean sword; if we don't want to see significant loss of life from tropical diseases (known and as yet undiscovered), starvation and malnutrition, or the social upheaval as large numbers of people are displaced, we must act now. Ice shelves and glaciers are melting/detaching at rates more accelerated than scientists once believed; we cannot count on gradual changes that give us time to adapt. Look to the frogs. Look to the bees. The canaries _are dying_. Debbi Now Unplugging All Appliances When Not In Use Maru _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
