1. Something definitely happened, but I doubt anyone knows exactly what, as yet.
2. It is almost certainly not as dire as Paulson and Bernanke are trying to make it sound. The world won't come to an end if we take the time to think things through. 3. Anyone who trusts what this administration says about this, or about any issue facing this country, is probably clinically insane. 4. Financial markets are not like other markets. Don't apply nostrums that seem to work in the corn flakes market and think they will work the same in a financial market. 5. People who have never read Adam Smith are probably not qualified to discuss what he said. And almost nobody has ever read Adam Smith. Even most economists have never gotten around to it. 6. Most people who have never studied physics would be unlikely to pontificate on the subject. Most people who have never studied economics not only will pontificate on the subject, but will explain to you in terms that suggest you are an idiot, why they are right and you are wrong. That they are unqualified will never occur to them. 7. Financial crises occur with a certain rhythm. This revolves around the time it takes for people to forget the lessons of the last crisis and develop the conceit that they are smarter than their forebears. John Kenneth Galbraith, who wrote a classic work on the 1929 crash, lays this out very clearly. Beginning in the late-1970s we have systematically eliminated all the constraints put in place in the 1930s to prevent another Great Depression from occurring. Each major deregulation was followed by a systemic crisis. The Depository Institution Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980, and Garn-St. Germain in 1982 led inevitably to the S&L crisis (McCain and the Bushes were part of that one too!). Gramm-Leach-Bliley (1999) led to this one. The long gap without major crises between the Great Depression and the S&L crisis is explained by the fact that the Great Depression was so severe that it was difficult to get politicians to forget the lessons learned and open the door to new abuses until a lot of time had gone by. Then the S&L problem occurred, but in the final analysis was not severe enough to restrain people for very long. What you should look for in this crisis is whether anyone draws the lesson that laws like Glass-Steagal worked very well for a long time, and should probably be re-instituted. I doubt that will happen, because the Republican Party has become our native criminal class, and the Democratic Party are such pussies that they haven't yet even mentioned the Keating Five. So you should prepare for a fix that papers things over for perhaps 5-7 years, followed by something even worse. Regards, -- Kevin B. O'Brien TANSTAAFL [EMAIL PROTECTED] Linux User #333216 "God made an idiot for practice. Then He made a school board." -- Mark Twain _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
