Original Message: ----------------- From: Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro albm...@centroin.com.br Date: Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:13:40 +0000 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Re: Knowledge of Complex Systems and Ecconomics
On 2009-09-05, Dan M wrote: > > We know that, while we cannot see trends as absolute rules when dealing > with complex systems, the most persimmons model consistent within the data > has the best chance of being a reasonable approximation of what we will > understand as we gain a better, more detailed understanding of the system. > In addition, it has the best change of future predictions. Note, I didn't > say that it would always be right; there are many times that extrapolations > beyond data are wrong. But, if one were to consider all possible theories > available at the time,, one's best chance of being close is choosing that > theory. > I had a feeling that I had predicted the crisis, but I didn't find my message. Here it is: Subject: Welcome to Hyperinflation! Date: 2008-08-29 12:30 > I was just checking the evolution of PPI (PPI and CPI measure > inflation in the USA), and noticed that _this year_ the > accumulated inflation is about 10% (!!!) Where did you get that? According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we've had deflation of about 1% over the past 12 months and inflation of 1.7% over the past 7 months. http://www.bls.gov/cpi/home.htm Dan M. Dan M. -------------------------------------------------------------------- mail2web.com What can On Demand Business Solutions do for you? http://link.mail2web.com/Business/SharePoint _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
