I sent this to a single person instead of the list due to Killer B being changed (probably automatically) from the sender to a cc. I think this happened a couple of other times. I've gotten replies, but will not post them, because they aren't my emails. But if the sender would, or would give me permission to, that would be great. In reply to Kevin, I wrote:
> The Chinese were extremely ham-handed about this. In particular, > their stoppage of rare earth shipments in response to an incident > involving their extrodinary claims to ocean territory (basically any > territory claims of the Chinese over the last 1000 years are > considered valid and enforceable by the the Chinese government) > generated strong reaction. Given the fact that consumers rightfully > believed that the Chinese were untrustworthy suppliers, as well as > expensive ones, it was reasonable for them to sacrifice a little > performance to switch to a more reliable and cheaper supply. The Chinese overplayed their hand, as they have overall the last year. > > They can probably drive Western companies out of the solar cell business. > Their entire ecconomic model, with artifically low value on their > currency, and the disdaining of IP right of other countries, fits > this. They may very well increase prices after becoming a near > monopoly, but the alternatives are oil and gas and coal and wind. > And, for certain remote applications, solar power actually works best. > > So, I'm guessing that it will not be the big win they see. But, they > are caught at a GDP level where Huntington has pointed out that > totalitarian goverments begin to get pushed by the growing middle > class. Their reaction is to clamp down harder....especially with the > new leadership, where all the leaders are both well filtered and the > result of nepotism. It is a dangerous mixture. Putting this together > with their demographic window of opportunity (the 1-child policy has a > big demographic bubble that will be old in 20 years), a surplus of > males, and one has a classic situation where countries become aggressive. > > We will be living in interesting times. > > Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://box535.bluehost.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
