Even if gnubg wins a match only 49.5%, in a set of 1000 matches there is more than 5% chance that gnubg wins 519 of them. that what 95% (one sided) confidence interval means.
-Joseph On 7/5/07, Achim Mueller <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
* Joseph Heled <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> [070705 11:14]: > With gnubg/Jelly we have p = .593 (estimated win percentage) and N = > 1000. The 95% confidence interval is [.562,.623], so we can be sure > gnubg is better. > > gnubg/bgb p=.519 and the interval is [.487,.55] so you can't say gnubg > is better than any of the others. I understand your calculation, but what is wrong with mine? I took the binominal distribution and my numbers seem to be correct, aren't they? sqrt(519*481/1000) = sqrt(249,639) = 15.799 actual result(+38)/sigma(15.799) = 2.4 (oops, in my first calculation I took +36, damn). 2.4 ---> 99.18% confidence that the same set of 1000 25p matches will produce a win for gnubg. Ok, I miscalculated it, but this is even more in favour of gnubg. Ciao Achim _______________________________________________ Bug-gnubg mailing list Bug-gnubg@gnu.org http://lists.gnu.org/mailman/listinfo/bug-gnubg
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