On 6/6/2024 1:32 PM, Francesco Ariis wrote:
Il 06 giugno 2024 alle 11:10 Ian Shaw ha scritto:
.... a lucky 66 makes a much bigger difference to the overall result of the match if comes in a bearoff at double match point rather in game 1 of an 11 pointer.
Now that I understand it, I think people online fixate too much on PR
Yes and it's much worse than that because all the "giants" rankings, etc. are based on PR. What Ian says about luck also applies to "errors" because errors made early in games/matches don't make as much of a difference to the overall result as the ones made later on. In addition, human players don't have control of "luck" but they have control of "errors". They may knowingly make "PR sacrificing decisions" even if they accept bot's calculation of errors as accurate. But, in fact, such decisions may not be errors at all and actually be the better decisions since there has never been any "scientifically acceptable proof" that the bot's decisions are always the best. In 2019, I have done an experiment playing a session of 100 money games against XGR+ by making as my first moves what the bot considered the absolute worse moves. You can see it at: https://montanaonline.net/backgammon/xg.php I played against XGR+ instead of XGR++ in my other experiments in order to keep the real-time screen-capture videos shorter, which you can view at: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CPhBQl5ttmo&feature=youtu.be https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Nj4PKrOxxy4&feature=youtu.be https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3SX136_Gs30&feature=youtu.be https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=McGTz8nBl_c&feature=youtu.be Before you look at the results, try to guess for a minute how much such huge errors would effect the results...? As far as number of games, I only won 26 vs bot's 74 because after my opening blunders the bot often doubled immediately and I had to drop. But as far as points, I still managed to win 77 points more than expected from my PR. So, yes, "PR" is "PS"! (No typo ;) MK
