The number would get that much more accurate if you did that survey for every night of the month - well, at least you would have a fairly accurate estimate of how many6 people have contradance in that month anywhere in the world. Since Houston dances on the 2nd and 4th Saturdays, May 5 would not include us.
What an interesting question - and what an interesting process to develop what will only ever be a best estimate but never a precise number that is correct. Fascinating, even for this non-mathematician! Dorcas Hand, Houston -----Original Message----- From: callers-boun...@sharedweight.net [mailto:callers-boun...@sharedweight.net] On Behalf Of Rich Hart Sent: Sunday, March 25, 2012 3:10 PM To: millst...@valley.net; Caller's discussion list Subject: Re: [Callers] number of contra dancers? David, What do you mean by "regularly"? - At least twice in the past 5 years? - At least twice in the past 2 years? - At least twice in the past 12 months? - At least twice in the past 3 months? - At least twice in the past week? I say twice, because I assume that by "regularly" you mean at least more than once. Then depending on how you define "regularly" you will get quite different answers. If you pick the first definition above, you will get a much bigger number than if you pick the last definition. A slightly easier question to answer is, "How many people attend a contra dance on a particular night?" On any particular night, worldwide, there will be many regular dancers dancing, as well and some new people. A few regular dancers will not attend because they are sick, or vising relatives in Alberta. The new dancers and the missing regular dancers may cancel each other out, at last to some degree. So, the number of people dancing, worldwide, on a particular night might be a rough estimate of the number of regular dancers, worldwide. It may be a bit low if we pick a night when there are no dances in Denmark, or Oregon, but it would set a good lower bound. So, how many people will be dancing, worldwide, on the the first Saturday in May, May 5th? The members of these 2 lists probably have contacts with or attend nearly every regular dance in the world (and quite a few irregular ones, too). If everyone on these lists who attends a dance on May 5th would take a count and send both the name of the dance and the attendance to someone, a count of the total number of dancers at the known dances could be made. It would take some work, as people would need to find a contact at dances they could not attend, but wanted to report. And the organizer who was doing the analysis would need to do enough planning ahead of time to be sure that as many dances, worldwide, were covered, as possible. Rich Hart. On 3/25/2012 1:31 PM, David Millstone wrote: > [Duplicate posting to trad-dance-callers and SharedWeight lists] > > A friend recently wrote me, "I am trying to pin down an unpindownable > number: namely the number of people in the world who regularly > contradance. Any idea of this number, or anyone who might steer me to > it?" > > I'm wondering if anyone on this list has tackled this question, has > developed even a crude methodology, and would be willing to share what > you came up with. > > As for "the world," with the exception of the folks in Denmark and in > England, I think we're really talking about the US and Canada in terms > of any significant numbers. I can ask friends ub Denmark for their > estimates. The annual country dance festival in Prague brings together > several hundred dance enthusiasts from central Europe, though their > definition of "regular" is certainly different from someone in the > Boston or SF Bay or DC areas. > > David Millstone _______________________________________________ Callers mailing list call...@sharedweight.net http://www.sharedweight.net/mailman/listinfo/callers
