---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Cam Watch <[email protected]> Date: 2013/7/15 Subject: Cambodia: Think Long Term Beyond July 28 To:
Dear All, Please find two interesting articles in which you will enjoy reading. (1) *"Cambodia: Think Long Term Beyond July 28"* by Dr Peang-Meth; (2) *"Veneer of democracy in Cambodia"* by Sebastian Strangio Regards, CambodiaWatch- Australia Team http://camwatchblogs.blogspot.com/ Cambodia: Think Long Term Beyond July 28 *Monday, 15 July 2013, 3:56 pm* *Press Release: Asian Human Rights Commission<http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1307/S00360/cambodia-think-long-term-beyond-july-28.htm#> * **Dr. Gaffar Peang-Meth My last two articles in this space -- "Building leadership for young Khmers," and "Understanding nation building" -- describe my long term goals for the developing leaders in Cambodia. I hope also to address other elements of nation-building with a view that if the concepts I advance are understood and applied, however slowly, change may be effected and certain present and future problems confronting Khmer society may be avoided or minimized. Unfortunately, many Cambodians perceive more urgent problems that need solution now. Some faithful Khmer readers from inside Cambodia and abroad have expressed their wish that my articles be published in the Khmer language. There was a time when I laboriously typed Khmer characters relatively quickly on an old Remington Khmer typewriter, but today I'm a dinosaur at using a computer<http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO1307/S00360/cambodia-think-long-term-beyond-july-28.htm#>for typing Khmer. Unfortunately, those who want to translate my writings have other responsibilities, and I have neither the old Remington nor the time. There are disgruntled Khmer readers who see my writings are "theoretical" and "conceptual" whereas Cambodians want "doers" to make things happen. I cannot but wonder if some of those readers never thought that they themselves might be the "doers" who can make things happen? I believe a leader is rarely if ever born, that a leader is made; in nation building we need not one leader but tens of thousands of leaders to take care of many different fields, leaders who can be cultivated. Khmers say, *A vieach york mok thveu kang; A trang york mok thveu kam; A sam ro'nham York mok thveu os dot* – Make a wheel out of bent wood; make a spoke out of straight piece; make firewood out of twisted and crooked wood. In other words, everything and every being has a place; should there be no place, then make one! Look into the mirror. Can the one who looks back be a doer? *Ches mok pi riean* *Ches mok pi riean*, Khmers also say – knowledge is acquired through learning. As an educator and a teacher in my past, I am putting my thoughts and experiences – and the thoughts and experiences of others – into writing with the hope that it would help Cambodians in the future. This brings me to a book just published, *The Cambodian Wars, Clashing Armies and CIA Covert Operations* by Kenneth Conboy. Conboy's research puts the lie to the common view that the Khmer Non-Communist Resistance operating at the Khmer-Thai border in the 1980s was ineffective. There were creative and innovative projects initiated by the Khmer People's National Liberation Armed Forces, including successful aggressive military actions that brought down a string of the Vietnamese puppet Phnom Penh regime's military bases along the Khmer-Thai border, paving the way for the 1991 Paris Peace Agreements. I am grateful that Conboy's sense of history led him to devote space in his book to record and analyze some of the operations I developed and implemented in the resistance, and to credit many who took great risks in the struggle to establish a democratic government in Phnom Penh. Conboy wrote, too, on how noncommunist Cambodians, whether of republican or monarchical political inclinations, were unable to harmonize and unite. This should be a reminder for today's Cambodian democrats. History can repeat itself. The Khmer *Sereika* (freedom fighters) were intelligent and determined, but they were weakened by a disunited leadership. I am reminded of my new Khmer friend from Tacoma, Washington, Hoeurn Mon, a former Buddhist monk for 22years, who spent several hours in discussion with me after my keynote speech in Tacoma in May. He taught me his Buddhist perspective on my remarks, which was most useful for me to learn. Lord Buddha taught, Mon told me, in a person's life journey one increases knowledge by listening to what one never heard. Listening to what one has heard before reaffirms one's point of view, refutes doubt, and improves one's understanding and analysis. In life, Mon said that one must learn, implement and study the result; that Buddha's *so'chek'po'lik* means one needs to listen, remember (digest), question, and write down; that the four most common errors a person experiences include error through unconsciousness, error through unawareness, error for doing what should not be done, and error for not considering what should be considered; that a learned person speaks useful words and performs useful deeds This Buddhist framework reaffirms my view that improvement in ways of thinking – values (high principles, freedom, justice, rule of law), beliefs (in one's ability, human dignity and worth), and interests (a harmony of national-societal-individual) are more important long lasting goals than physical and material change. Change in intangible spiritual matters precedes the tangible. Knowing is good. Productive quality thinking consisting of creativity and criticality is vital. Thinking smart and acting smart are good techniques. *About Khmer politics* In thirteen days, Cambodian citizens will go to the polls to cast their ballots either for the continuation of the status quo under Prime Minister Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge officer who was made Cambodia's satellite Prime Minister by Vietnam's invading forces since 1985, or for the main opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party led by self-exiled Sam Rainsy, sentenced to a 12-year prison term on politically motivated charges. According to news from Cambodia, the CNRP has picked up increasing support from the population in general although Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party is strong among the rural population. In general, the news reports indicate that people have grown tired of the same three old faces ruling Cambodia, that even some in the CPP feel it's time for a change in leadership, and that there are senior CPP members who are anxious about the CNRP's growing popularity and threat, an explanation for Hun Sen's warning that a civil war will ensue should the CPP lose the election this July 28. Some national and international observers predict Hun Sen's election victory. Chairman of the US House of Foreign Affairs subcommittee on East Asia, Steve Chabot, led lawmakers in a hearing last week to discuss cutting off US aid (more than $70 million per year) unless Hun Sen allows free elections on July 28. Chabot said he has no doubt Hun Sen will win through "political violence, corruption and nepotism" to remain prime minister for another new term (although Hun Sen has let it be known he will stay in power for another decade). I believe that a free and fair election would send Hun Sen packing, just as the Cambodian people voted for royalist opposition leader Nororom Ranariddh in the first and last UN-supervised election in 1993. But Hun Sen threatened war in 1993 and had himself made second prime minister until he pulled a coup against Ranariddh in 1997. Today he is threatening war again. Why do that if he is certain he is going to win? The people in general, including some in the CPP want change. To US lawmakers' threat to cut off aid, the Hun Sen government responded that it is the right of the US to cut off aid and that the aid does not mean that Cambodia must be subservient to US wishes. The Americans "can say whatever they want, but the decision on the future of Cambodia" is in Cambodians' hands. *Sam Rainsy's Return to Cambodia* Some Cambodian readers have asked me for insight over the last six months on the subject of Hun Sen's threats to arrest self-exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy upon his return to Cambodia. I quoted that hapless but eternally optimistic hotel manager Patel in the film Best Exotic Marigold Hotel: "Everything will be all right in the end. If it's not all right, it is not yet the end." In my article on February 1, I theorized a Hun Sen in control of government machinery since 1985 is unlikely to lose the election on July 28, hence, it is logically a "win-win" move for Hun Sen to seek a royal pardon for Sam Rainsy to return to Cambodia to participate in the election. In spite of Hun Sen's persistent threats to imprison Sam Rainsy despite the international community's appeals to let the Rainsy return safely, I reasoned that the Khmer *Ramvong – *a favorite traditional circle dance when participants dance around and around in a circle – is a relevant metaphor for the ongoing maneuvering in which the two politicians likely are engaged. I reminded readers of the great baseball catcher Yogi Berra's famous saying, "It ain't over till it's over." Recently, the US State Department asked the Hun Sen government to allow Rainsy to return safely to Cambodia, free from arrest. Police spokesman Kiet Chantharith told Radio Free Asia Sam Rainsy would be arrested upon arrival. Things in Cambodia are not necessarily what they appear, however, and I kept looking for signs that behind the fog of words generated by the political *Ramvong*, negotiations were underway. Then, in a video posted to his Facebook page, Sam Rainsy declared, "I agree to sacrifice my life for national homeland, daring to die myself to rescue the nation from catastrophe." There's no ambiguity in his words. He upped the ante as US lawmakers threatened a cut-off of aid. Following, Council of Ministers spokesman Phay Siphan urged Sam Rainsy to write to Hun Sen "asking for a compromise," and suggested that Sam Rainsy could ask the Council of Ministers to seek a royal pardon from the King. Wasting no time, Sam Rainsy told RFA on July 9, "I hope that there will be a negotiation ... to resolve the issue among Khmers." Aha! On July 12, Hun Sen reportedly wrote to King Sihamoni requesting "in the spirit of reconciliation" a royal pardon for Sam Rainsy. On the same day the King's decree granted the royal pardon. Declared Phay Siphan: "All of his convictions are clear now. He is a free man, he is welcome back home and he can come back anytime." A brilliant if not unforeseeable move. Sam Rainsy declared he would return to Cambodia "in the next few days." In a statement, he said, "I would have returned even in the absence of a pardon to highlight the condition of democracy in my country." *Some thoughts* I have no crystal ball about the future. I think Cambodians and the international community spend too much time talking about a free and fair election. While Hun Sen is in charge and intending to remain in power for another 10 years there will be no free and fair election, no level playing field. Cambodians must think beyond July 28. The fight for rights, justice, and the rule of law will continue. Looking for a long pan to cook an eel is neither thinking smart nor acting smart. Information on how to fight and destroy a dictatorship is available from many sources. The strategies and tactics need to be learned and applied. While CNRP Sam Rainsy's return is a small victory for democrats, "it ain't over" yet. The political *Ramvong *continues. Each side tries to tire out the other. It's a nature of Khmer politics. ................. *The AHRC is not responsible for the views shared in this article, which do not necessarily reflect its own.* *About the Author:* Dr. Gaffar Peang-Meth is retired from the University of Guam, where he taught political science for 13 years. He currently lives in the United States. Posted by CamWatch at Monday, July 15, 2013<http://camwatchblogs.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/cambodia-think-long-term-beyond-july-28.html> Veneer of democracy in Cambodia By Sebastian Strangio *Asia Times Online* PHNOM PENH - After nearly four years on the political margins, Cambodian opposition leader Sam Rainsy will again take center stage when he returns to his homeland on Friday in advance of national elections on July 28. The president of the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) has been living in France to avoid an 11-year jail term for defamation and other charges handed down in connection with a stunt in which he uprooted demarcation posts along the Vietnamese border in late 2009. Following a royal pardon last Friday, the 64-year-old can now return without fear of arrest and will immediately throw himself into campaigning against the country's long-serving prime minister Hun Sen. For Rainsy, the pardon, engineered by Hun Sen and rubber-stamped by King Norodom Sihamoni, is the culmination of four years of lobbying in Western capitals, where he has struggled-often in vain-to keep Cambodia on the international agenda. As the election has drawn near, his efforts have started to pay off. In the past few months, the US State Department has rebuked Cambodia for glaring problems in its electoral process, including Rainsy's absence from the country and the ruling party's expulsion of 28 opposition lawmakers from the National Assembly last month. It also slammed a government ban-since reversed-on the airing of foreign radio broadcasts during the month-long campaign period. (A separate ban on foreign election-related broadcasts in the five days prior to polling day remains in place). The US Congress has also upped the pressure. In a June 7 resolution, US Senators Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio called for a freeze on US aid to Cambodia if the coming election is "not credible and competitive". A similar resolution is also set to be introduced in the US House of Representatives, where Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, a long-time Rainsy ally, denounced Hun Sen as "a corrupt, vicious human being, who has held that country in his grip for decades". The US politician added: "It's time for Hun Sen to go." The 61-year-old strongman, Asia's longest serving prime minister, clearly has different plans. Hun Sen has been in power since 1985 and his Cambodian People's Party (CPP) enjoys all the advantages of decades-long incumbency: a pliant court system and government administration, a near-monopoly on media coverage, the support of the army and police, and the financial backing of a clique of friendly crony-tycoons. The CPP has increased its share of National Assembly seats at every national poll since the United Nations-backed 1993 election-in 2008, it won 90 out of 123 seats-and controls appointments to the country's National Election Committee (NEC). Despite his rival's return, Hun Sen will almost certainly win <http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-150713.html#>again by a big margin. Even so, the CPP has spared no expense in its election campaign, monopolizing public space with the party's blue campaign posters and sending paid party activists through the streets of the capital to wave flags and blare pro-government techno music. Earlier this month, the CPP released a slickly-produced campaign video featuring karaoke star Nop Panharith, which mixed homilies to Hun Sen's "iron-fisted" leadership with footage of Angkor Wat and sweeping helicopter shots of party youth activists forming a large number 4-the CPP's ballot number-on the roof of Phnom Penh's Canadia Bank building. For all its newfound multimedia-savvy the CPP has kept its message simple, emphasizing the party's role in deposing the Khmer Rouge in 1979, forging peace, and fostering a period of impressive economic growth. For the three-quarters of the Cambodian population who still live in poor rural areas, it remains a convincing pitch, made all the more so by memories of past horrors and conjured-up fears that the country might somehow slide back into chaos. In a poll conducted in Cambodia earlier this year, the US-funded International Republican Institute found that 79% of respondents thought the country was heading "in the right direction", while 74% hailed the ruling party's road-building as a key achievement. For a large percentage of Cambodians, politics generally remains a case, to paraphrase German playwright Bertolt Brecht, of "first rice, then democracy". But Cambodia's political landscape is slowly changing. In the upcoming election around 3.5 million of the country's 9.5 million registered voters will be between the ages of 18 and 30, according to the NEC, of which 1.5 million, or 15% of the electorate, will be voting for the first time. What this means is that as much as half the Cambodian population now has no memory of the horrors of the Khmer Rouge, who ruled the country from 1975-79. As a result, the opposition CNRP-formed last year from a merger of Rainsy's eponymous party and the Human Rights Party founded in 2007 by Kem Sokha (now the CNRP's deputy president) hope they will be more open to a campaign focused on corruption and job creation. "[Young people] feel that it's their future which is being challenged now," said Long Botta, a former education minister who is running as a CNRP candidate in western Battambang province. "Things have changed for most of them. They're in a bubble of excitement." *Change or no change?* Lacking the CPP's financial resources, the CNRP has built its campaign around a Barack Obama-esque mantra "change or no change?", which has been taken up enthusiastically by young supporters at party rallies. The party also hopes to capitalize on simmering discontent related to state-backed land-grabbing, which by one count has affected 300,000 people across the country since 2003 and has escalated considerably since the last national election in 2008. There are signs that the CPP is growing worried about its hold on power. Despite a convincing victory in commune elections in June 2012, the party took some unexpected hits in its rural heartland. To mollify land concerns, Hun Sen formed a troupe of paid "volunteer" students who fanned out across the country handing out new title deeds to affected villagers. In the first half of 2013, he also presided over the inauguration of 22 Buddhist pagodas, many located in key "swing communes". Addressing audiences of rice farmers, he openly warned that the benefits of CPP rule-particularly its infrastructure projects and patronage of Buddhism-will come to an end if he loses power. "If people don't vote for [the CPP], we will be disheartened and will stop giving," he said during the inauguration of a national road in March. "All projects will be eliminated. ... Even a project like pumping water to dry farms." The next month he even warned of "internal war" if the opposition came to power. In the context of a close-fought poll, Rainsy's return to Cambodia presents both pitfalls and opportunities for the opposition. Some observers think that by energizing the CNRP campaign, it will help the opposition build on the 29 out of 123 seats it currently holds in the National Assembly. "It will give the party a big boost," said Lao Mong Hay, an independent political analyst. "This party has generated what might be called a mass movement for change across the country, and it has been gaining momentum during the absence of its leader." But Rainsy's return could also benefit the wily Hun Sen, who as always has his eye on the long game. Elections are always a magnet for international attention, and with the spotlight glaring some kind of political arrangement to secure Rainsy's return was always likely for the sake of appearances. But will the attention be sustained after the polls? In February 2006, a year after Rainsy was hounded out of Cambodia by defamation lawsuits brought by Hun Sen and his then-coalition partner Prince Norodom Ranariddh, he received a royal pardon and returned hailing a "new chapter in Cambodian history". A few years later, after the CPP secured a landslide electoral victory in 2008, the government tightened the screws again by dragging journalists and opposition figures through the courts. Following his border post stunt in October 2009, Rainsy himself was forced back into exile. Optimistic observers hold out hope that this time things will be different. "The pressure has been mounting over time," said Lao Mong Hay. "It seems America means business." But history suggests otherwise. As Hun Sen has consolidated his control over the past 20 years, he has repeatedly used "royal" pardons as a means of resetting the status quo by defusing pressure from abroad and extracting political concessions from his rivals. In 2006, Rainsy offered a public apology to Hun Sen and Ranariddh in return for his pardon. The currency on offer this time is legitimacy: Rainsy's presence is set to boost the credibility of what will remain a seriously flawed election. Rainsy himself has warned that "the mere fact of my return does not create a free and fair election for Cambodia". But Hun Sen knows that the main question for foreign governments is not whether the election will be "fair" in absolute terms - no election since 1993 really has been - but rather whether the poll is fair enough. Ou Virak, president of the Cambodian Centre of Human Rights, said prior to Rainsy's pardon that based on past practice foreign governments - having long learned to live with Hun Sen - will admit "irregularities" in the vote but probably accept the result. "My view is that the donors ... will see the injustice, will complain about it, but will never ever take a stand," he said. In 20 years, Hun Sen has lowered democratic expectations to such a degree that the mere presence of an opposition leader on Cambodian soil may now be enough get it over the line. Foreign Minister Hor Namhong has already claimed that Rainsy's presence is in itself a guarantee of a "free and fair" poll. With or without Rainsy, the real long-term danger for the CPP will be maintaining the political momentum generated by its own propaganda. Hun Sen is characterized in increasingly superhuman terms-as a military genius, a political mastermind, and man of overweening merit who rains blessings on the people. It is a myth that can only really be perpetuated by ever-greater margins of electoral victory. If Rainsy and his reinvigorated party are able to eat into the CPP's rural vote-bank, it is possible that Hun Sen's carefully cultivated aura of invincibility might slowly, if imperceptibly, begin to fade. If that were the case, the gamble of Rainsy's return might just be worth it. *Sebastian Strangio is a journalist based in Phnom Penh who covers the Asia-Pacific and is working on a book about modern Cambodia. He may be reached* [email protected]. Posted by CamWatch at Monday, July 15, 2013<http://camwatchblogs.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/veneer-of-democracy-in-cambodia.html> -- -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Cambodia Discussion (CAMDISC) - www.cambodia.org" group. This is an unmoderated forum. Please refrain from using foul language. Thank you for your understanding. Peace among us and in Cambodia. 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