NETWORK WORLD NEWSLETTER: OPTICAL NETWORKING 08/18/04 Dear [EMAIL PROTECTED],
In this issue: * DSLAM shipments down again, to remain in slump for at least a ��year * Links related to Optical Networking * Featured reader resource _______________________________________________________________ This newsletter is sponsored by Oracle An Economist Intelligence Unit White Paper: From Grid to Great? Grid computing is breaking out. Familiar mostly to academics, government groups, and scientific researchers, this technology that links together the power of diverse computers to create powerful, fast and flexible systems is beginning to catch on in the corporate world. Included in this white paper, results and interviews from a global survey among Sr Executives, click to download now http://www.fattail.com/redir/redirect.asp?CID=72606 _______________________________________________________________ CHECK OUT NW FUSION'S NEW WHITE PAPER LIBRARY Just launched: NW Fusion's White Paper Library with new features and improved capabilities! Sort NW Fusion's library of white papers by Date and Vendor, view white papers by TECHNICAL CATEGORY, mouse over white paper descriptions and take advantage of our IMPROVED white paper search engine. CLICK HERE: http://www.fattail.com/redir/redirect.asp?CID=72539 _______________________________________________________________ Today's focus: Dell'Oro: DSLAM correction pending By Jim Duffy The DSL access multiplexer market is undergoing a correction. According to Dell'Oro Group, DSLAM port shipments are down for the second quarter in a row. DSL port shipment volume will approximate 12.1 million in the second quarter, down from a peak of 14.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2003. The firm expects port shipments in the third quarter to drop to 11.5 million, rise to 12.7 million in the fourth quarter, and then remain relatively flat until the third quarter of 2005. Meanwhile, subscriber adds haven't kept pace with port shipments. Worldwide, there were 7.5 million DSL subscriber adds in the second quarter, down from 8.2 million in the first quarter. Dell'Oro expects 7.7 million and 8.7 million subscribers adds per quarter over the next six quarters. "There was a big run-up over the past three quarters" in port shipments, says Tam Dell'Oro, founder of the market research firm that bears her name. DSL port shipments exceeded net adds by 80% on a worldwide basis during the past three quarters. This compares to an average of 35% during 2002, and 70% in 2003, which saw a significant run-up in port shipments in the second half. "There seems to be a disconnect," Dell'Oro says, referring to the overbuild over the past three quarters. Why did it happen? Dell'Oro thinks some irrational exuberance set in after telecom's three-year nuclear winter. "I think everybody was excited that things were doing well after the tough times," Dell'Oro says. Though she expects the correction to be temporary - lasting another quarter or two as the extra capacity level drops - Dell'Oro says the market could go one of two ways once ADSL build-outs are complete: it could either surge again as video services necessitate upgrades to take ADSL beyond 1M bit/sec; or it could mature very quickly as operators look to get 20 years of carrier-class reliability from their ADSL equipment investments. "Video services would likely prompt operators to upgrade their networks," Dell'Oro says. "But I'll bet anything that there will be no massive capital investment until the senior staff (at these operators) are convinced of a return on investment." Dell'Oro's second quarter findings do not indicate any significant shifts in market share among the key vendors, which include Alcatel, Huawei, Siemens, Lucent, UTStarcom and NEC. The firm also found that pricing stabilized in the second quarter, which kept market revenue from falling faster than port shipments. _______________________________________________________________ To contact: Jim Duffy Jim Duffy is managing editor of Network World's service provider equipment coverage <http://www.nwfusion.com/edge/>. He has 18 years of high-tech reporting experience, including over 12 years at Network World. Previously, he was senior editor at Computer Systems News and associate editor/reporter at Electronic News and MIS Week. He can be reached at <mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]>. _______________________________________________________________ This newsletter is sponsored by Oracle An Economist Intelligence Unit White Paper: From Grid to Great? Grid computing is breaking out. Familiar mostly to academics, government groups, and scientific researchers, this technology that links together the power of diverse computers to create powerful, fast and flexible systems is beginning to catch on in the corporate world. Included in this white paper, results and interviews from a global survey among Sr Executives, click to download now http://www.fattail.com/redir/redirect.asp?CID=72606 _______________________________________________________________ ARCHIVE LINKS Breaking optical-networking news from Network World, The Edge and around the 'Net, updated daily: http://www.nwfusion.com/topics/optical.html Archive of the Optical Networking newsletter: http://www.nwfusion.com/newsletters/optical/index.html _______________________________________________________________ FEATURED READER RESOURCE WONDERING IF YOUR PAY IS UP TO SNUFF? Check out Network World's 2004 Salary Calculator to see if you're getting paid what you're worth. Using data collected in the 2004 Network World Salary Survey, we've programmed this calculator with several categories that could affect your pay. Answer the questions and find out what the average salary is for your job category. Click here: <http://www.nwfusion.com/salary/2004/calculator.html> _______________________________________________________________ May We Send You a Free Print Subscription? You've got the technology snapshot of your choice delivered at your fingertips each day. Now, extend your knowledge by receiving 51 FREE issues to our print publication. 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