The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
September 2-3, 2004
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***Forget about the "horrible" state of the US economy�
***Annual GDP growth looking good, productivity up, unemployment near
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>From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger
Dear Friend,
Watching Georgia senator Zell Miller (D) give his stern philippic against John
Kerry last night, I admit my jaw dropped halfway through his speech. So, it
seemed, had the collective jaws of convention attendees and pundits.
Hearing Zell summarize Kerry's senate voting record was like watching
Rocky Balboa pound a hapless welterweight with his opponent's own mitts.
How can you possibly spin that? It seemed like even our favorite left-leaning
news anchors reeled away shell-shocked, unable to muster their relativistic
big-picture backdrop.
***US worker productivity grew at a 2.5% annual rate in Q2. The press
was quick to point out that this was the "slowest rate since the fourth quarter
of 2002."
Since productivity measures the amount of work done by an employee in an
hour, I was wondering if the "slowdown" could be the result of more people
tackling the same amount of work? In other words, gains in employment
typically result in a slowdown in productivity: payrolls grew in Q2, adding
610,000 workers from April through June - the biggest quarterly gain since
the last three months of 2000.
Labor costs rose at a 1.8% annual rate, the fastest in two years. Another
interesting tidbit released earlier this week: personal income rose by only
0.1%. Where could the difference possibly end up?
In the manufacturing sector, however, productivity grew at a 6.9%,
compared to 2.8% in the previous quarter.
***So much for the "horrible" state of the US economy. With annual GDP
growth expected to come in somewhere below 4%, productivity up,
unemployment near historic lows, payrolls, income and spending up, one
might expect that the dollar would be on an upward swing as well.
After all, if you look at the economic data underlying its currency
counterparts, you might expect to develop a nervous tic below your eye.
Take Germany, the EU's largest economy and net payer. German
unemployment just hit 4.41 million (out of a total population of below 80
million). Unemployment is at 10.6%. Personal spending is down, business
confidence is down. Exports, the only sector still chugging along nicely, are
expected to shrivel up and fall off in the next two quarters.
Germany once again is expected to blow past its EU-imposed budget deficit
limits, with an expected shortfall of 3.7% of GDP. And the deck is stacked
for another shortfall next year, with GDP likely to contract as spending on
benefits increases.
But the euro is holding steady at relative highs against the greenback.
It all makes perfect sense, doesn't it�?
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Earnings Announcements for Friday, September 3, 2004:
CSK Auto, Rank Group PLC, Soco International, and United Services
Group NV are some of the companies releasing earnings.
***Quote of the Day:
"Last night, Zell Miller and Dick Cheney defined John Kerry, his record
and his vision for winning the War on Terror. Kerry had his chance at
his convention but chose to walk away from his record. Now, he may
have nowhere to run."
--David Winston, September 2, 2004
"Sure there have been injuries, and even some deaths in boxing, but
none of them really that serious."
--Unknown Olympic boxing analyst
"Indeed, since President Bush's tax cuts of 2003, the domestic economy
has increased by 5 percent and the unemployment rate has dropped to a
historically low 5.5 percent. Business-payroll enrollment has climbed by
1.5 million while 2.5 million more people are working overall.
(Entrepreneurs, the self-employed, independent contractors, and many
other income-earning Americans are not counted in the Labor
Department's payroll survey.) Filling this out, the stock market has
increased 40 percent in the last year, home ownership is at a record
high, wage and salary income is growing better than 4 percent, and
family net worth has surpassed the level of Clinton's busted asset
bubble."
--Larry Kudlow, September 1, 2004
***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "At this point, it becomes difficult to see whether the indicators continue
a truly bullish course� or whether they're merely playing catch-up. We
therefore limit our upside expectation to 0.5%, while retaining yesterday's
downside risk."
Looks like our indicators hit the upside (13,088.42) as well as the downside
today as the Hang Seng closed at 12,999.07, down 24.80 points (0.19%).
Our indicators continue to predict a day of divergent moves for tomorrow,
our tiebreaker hinting at an upside of 0.5%.
*** "The indicators point to the possibility that there's another 0.5% to be
tickled out of the index by Friday."
Japan's Nikkei 225 closed the day at 11,152.75, up 25.40 points (0.23%).
The indicators now expect a fundamentally breakeven day, with a potential
downside of 0.4 %
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:
***Out of Gas? General Motors and Ford surprised nobody today by
announcing grim August sales figures. It marks the third straight month of
declines for the two companies, despite both offering pretty lavish incentives
to consumers.
Trouble is, consumers don't seem to be in a buying mood. This was reflected
in GM's ugly 7% sales drop, punctuated by Saab sales dropping 25%. Ford
sales declined 5.9%, with Jaguar posting a disastrous 33% slump.
Elsewhere, Mitsubishi sales plummeted 57.7%, while Volkswagen AG
endured a 24.2% drop. Honda sales fell 7.1% and Toyota turned in a 2.8%
loss.
It wasn't all bad, however. The Chrysler wing of DaimlerChrysler reported a
fifth straight month of rising sales, albeit by a slender 1%. Nissan sales rose
7.3%, BMW AG sales climbed 6.2%, and Mercedes enjoyed a 10.5%
advance.
Nevertheless, overall industry sales dropped 5.4%.
GM and Ford still sport healthy US market shares of 27% and 18%,
respectively. But with sales sliding, Asian manufacturers like Toyota,
Hyundai and Kia are gobbling up market share. Toyota's has grown 1%
over the past year.
Slack sales will lead GM to cut fourth-quarter production by 7% to 1.3
million compared to last year, while Ford will slash production by 8% to
830,000.
***Drowning in Deutschland. Is this enough to call it a trend? Probably not.
But for the second straight month, German retail sales climbed in July,
following June's 2.6% with a 0.9% advance. At this point, with exports sales
responsible for the majority of German growth, any kind of pickup in
consumer spending is welcome. Germans barely spent at all during the
second quarter, posting a measly 0.1% increase. Overall domestic demand
contracted 0.1%. Yet exports still managed to propel Germany's economy
to 0.5% growth - the best in two years.
Things don't bode well, though. The Federal Labor Agency today said
unemployment in August rose for the seventh straight month, and at the
highest rate for five months, to 4.4 million. That keeps the jobless rate at an
11-month high of 10.6%. It's expected to stay over 10% for the next 18
months as industry hiring costs remain the third highest in Europe.
So it's easy to see why Germans have taken to the streets en masse over the
past month to protest against Chancellor Gerhard Schr�der's cuts to jobless
benefits - the first since WWII. With more Germans unemployed, the
government is spending more. That has contributed to Finance Minister Hans
Eichel raising Germany's budget deficit forecast for this year from 3.25% of
GDP to 3.7%.
***Eurozoners Still Struggling for Work� ECB Still Struggling for Energy.
Germany serves as a snapshot of the overall Eurozone job market. For the
fourth straight month, unemployment remained at 9% in July - the highest
since October 1999.
And what is the European Central Bank doing to help? Naturally, absolutely
nothing. The bankers displayed another bout of inertia today, leaving interest
rates at 2% for the 16th straight month.
President Jean-Claude Trichet explained the decision, citing high oil and
energy prices that could lead to weaker domestic and overseas demand. The
bank also said higher prices will result in inflation rising "slightly," but
reaffirmed its theory that a "gradual" economic recovery will continue and
consequently raised its full-year Eurozone growth forecast from 1.7% to
1.9%.
Cheerio for now.
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J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
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