Nelayan, Winning Week One in the NFL: 4-1 ATS -------------------------------------------- The freebie pick (Arizona +11) covered and nearly won outright. Overall for the week my picks were 4-1 ATS and 1-1 on the moneyline. Other ATS winners included San Francisco, San Diego and Denver and the loss came from Miami.�Money-line picks were roughly a wash with 2-star San Francisco failing and San Diego winning outright at +190 units. View my previous NFL picks here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-nfl.html
Beware Your Instincts -------------------------- My theme for week 2 is one I often promote. Be careful about your gut instincts. We now have one (and only one) week to which to react. Public perceptions are based on what happened last week and that can be very dangerous. The public has a short memory and right now they have one game for each team to analyze. If we are aware of this fact, we can use it to our profitable advantage. Based on last week, here's what I am guessing you have heard around the water cooler this week: "I told you Carolina was a fluke last year!" "Wow. Cleveland must be pretty good." "Denver is Super Bowl bound. You watch." "Minnesota's going to put up 30 points per game all season long." "Nothing's changed in Kansas City. They're doomed." While some of these statements may be true, others are not (don't forget how New Enlgand started last season). However, I'm not interested at this point in making predictions about Super Bowl contenders or pretenders or even taking sides on the above statements. My point is this: some of the spreads this week are not accurate due to public (mis)perception and as a result provide excellent value. They reflect the fact that the public has overreacted to last week's events. We will use this to our advantage this week by identifying select games in which public perception is disconnected with reality AND we have other reasons to like the underrated teams. I recommend this: Check your gut at the door in week 2. If a game jumps out at you as a lock, pause and think about how much your opinion is based on something that happened last week. The most dangerous situation is one in which your instinct and gut feel going into week one was confirmed. It's human nature: we are now feeling pretty confident in our prediction capabilities and we see an "easy pick" this week. Beware. I have five total picks this week with the complimentary pick below. Order a Premium Picks package here: https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php The Dog Wunderdog Premium Selections -------------------------------------- My season subscription gets you every pick from the preseason through the Super Bowl for about $20 per week. You can also purchase weekly picks for just 39 dollars or a monthly package for $119 (40% off the weekly rate). Check out the subscription options here: https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php Complimentary Selections ---------------------------------- *Buffalo +3.5 (-110) vs. Oakland Buffalo lost a heart-breaker last week to Jacksonville on a last-second Byron Leftwich touchdown pass. Outside of that last drive, Buffalo's defense looked like it did in 2003: very good. The Bills allowed the second fewest yards last season (they are in the same position this year after one week) and should be able to keep Oakland in check this week. The big question is whether Buffalo can muster any offense. I think the Bills can score enough points to keep this one close. The Bills also have some trends going their way. In week 2, visiting teams in a matchup of winless teams cover the spread about 7 out of 10 times. If the visitor lost as a favorite, that percentage improves. I expect a low-scoring close affair. One unit on Buffalo. **This week I've got four premium picks which you can get here for just $39 here: https://srv02.velocera-eng.com/~freeunderdog.com/subscription/subscribers/paid_newsletter_form.php ========================= NFL Football Resources ========================= Six Reasons Why Underdogs are the Smart Bet in the NFL: http://www.freeunderdog.com/regularseasonphilosophy.html 2004 NFL FreeAgency Review: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-NFL-free-agency.html 2004 Draft Winners and Losers: http://www.freeunderdog.com/2004-NFL-draft-winners-losers.html Up-to-Date NFL ATS Records: http://www.freeunderdog.com/nfl-football-ats-standings.htm NFL Game-of-the-Week Preview: http://www.freeunderdog.com/nfl-football-game-of-the-week-preview.html Live NFL Football Lines: http://www.freeunderdog.com/lines-and-odds-nfl.html ====================================================================== Star Ratings Explained ------------------------------ I list a * rating next to every game. This rating indicates my confidence (1 star = least, 4 stars = most). When I track my results, I weight each game based on these ratings. 1 Star = 100 unit bet, 4 stars = 400 unit bet For a more detailed explanation of units and how I use and calculate them, check this out: http://www.freeunderdog.com/units-explained.html. Money-Line / Straight-up Betting Explained ------------------------------------------ Money-line betting (also called straight-up betting) is an alternative way to bet a football game. Instead of using the point spread, you simply pick which team you think will win the game. If that team wins, you win. If that team loses, you lose. Money-line betting is an effective way to make a lot while risking a little by picking underdogs to win the game outright. For a detailed description of the money line, go here: http://www.freeunderdog.com/moneyline.html --------------------------------------------------------- To manage your subscriptions (add or remove yourself from individual newsletters), change your email preferences (email address, text vs. html format), or view your account and order history, please click the link at the very bottom of this newsletter. --------------------------------------------------------- Pass this Newsletter on to a Friend! If you know someone who would like to receive my newsletter and picks, please direct them here: http://www.freeunderdog.com. --------------------------------------------------------- The information in this newsletter is based on opinion is intended for informational purposes only. No guarantees or warranties are implied. Use this information at your own risk. --------------------------------------------------------- Good luck! 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