The Taipan Group's 247profits e-Dispatch
Baltimore, New York, Chicago, Berlin, Bonn, London and Paris
September 22-23, 2004
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***The dance of the markets is all too familiar�
***The greenback traded up against the euro and up against the yen� anti-
dollar gold, too, followed the predictable pattern, as did the US markets. But
there's still money to be made�
***Trade on the News and Make Predictable Returns Week After
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http://www.youreletters.com/t/60740/3785361/646848/70/
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>From the Desk of J. Christoph Amberger
Dear Friend,
Was anyone really surprised? The US Federal Reserve yesterday increased
its key rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.75%, signaling that it was
willing to continue increasing rates in the near future and maybe until the end of
2005.
The rate hike triggered the second movement in the by now familiar dance of
the markets: the dollar rose today, making good losses incurred yesterday
when the media was still reporting that "investors were fearful" of something
or other. The greenback traded up against the euro and up against the yen�
without ever putting a toe outside the well-worn tracks it has been moving in
for the past few months.
Anti-dollar gold, too, followed the predictable pattern, as did the US markets.
***Looking at this repetitive pattern of up and downs, it is not surprising that
one of the most frequent things you hear among normal investors these days is
the depressed and defeatist statement that one just can't make money in this
kind of market.
Of course, we beg to differ. Making money for our subscribers is the point of
all of the services we offer. And almost every day, my editors forward
success stories that nicely illustrate this view.
Like Ian Cooper, who wrote me this morning:
"164% gains in less than 24 trading hours: This past Friday, Red Zone
Profit's "Five Stocks Likely to Profit During the Months of Election Terror"
was posted to the team's Special Report page.
"And it's already produced a triple digit winner that saw volume skyrocket
more than 500% yesterday on news of a multimillion-dollar contract. The best
part: there's still plenty of time to buy this winner and the four others that stand
to do the same.
"But instead of patting ourselves on the back about this play, we'll let some of
our devoted members do it for us.
"'Normally you're the first to beat your own chest about your winners, but for
some reason you've been mum. The last two days have seen an explosion of
volume and the thing's more than DOUBLED! I was lucky enough to buy in
at $0.48.' --Mike P.
"'I bought at $0.48 yesterday and today the stock is up to $1.14 or 138% in
less than 36 hours. Just don't forget to tell me when to sell. Having fun.' --
A.O.
"'Very pleased with your recommendation. Sold half today for a 145% gain.
Outstanding!' --J.J.T.
"'In for 10,000 shares at 44 cents: out at $1.14 for a $6,970 profit. Keep
'em coming! And thanks.' --D.S."
For more information on the above report and the team that's raking in these
profits, visit this link immediately:
http://www.youreletters.com/t/60740/3785361/556051/70/
***Meanwhile, new applications for US home loans rose alongside renewed
demand for home loan refinancings. The Mortgage Bankers Association's
seasonally adjusted market index rose by 1.8% for the past week. New
refinancing applications rose by 4.1%.
Coincidence that Impac (IMH:NYSE) is knocking loudly at its historic high?
***Presidential Punting
Today's tradesports.com standings for the 2004 Presidential Election are:
PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004: 68.6/68.8 (yesterday's standing: 69.2/69.9)
PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 30.9/32.9 (yesterday's standing: 30.8/32.2)
Earnings Announcements for Thursday, September 23, 2004:
AG Edwards Inc., Bassett Furniture Industries, Finish Line, Hartmarx Corp.,
Manugistics Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, PalmSource Inc., Saba Software
Inc., Texas Industries Inc., and The Topps Company are some of the
companies releasing earnings.
***Quote of the Day:
"The occurrence of rising short rates and falling long rates is known as
the 'monetary paradox.' In theory, this suggests that the Fed's removal
of excess money with an increase in the base target rate from 1 to 1.75
percent has reduced inflation fears according to falling bond rates. Since
domestic price stability should be the Fed's number-one goal, it would
appear that Greenspan & Co. is getting the job done."
Larry Kudlow, September 22, 2004
***Take it from the man who pinpointed the tops in the NASDAQ, S&P and
Russell 2000� "Get 15.2 Time Richer by Election Day 2004!"
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***WORLD OF PROFITS***
*** "Our indicators at this point allow no clear conclusion on the market's
direction tomorrow. We hedge our bets at the mildly bullish end of the
spectrum of possible outcomes."
After maxing out the bullish bias at 13,356.88, the Hong Kong Hang Seng
index finished the day in the red at 13,272.23, down 32.25 points or 0.24%.
For tomorrow, our indicators exhibit a southbound convergence that
foreshadows further drops between 0.5% and 1%.
*** "For tomorrow there is some softness becoming apparent, especially in
the export sector. Expect pullbacks of around 0.5%."
How much closer can we get? Japan's Nikkei 225 ended the day at
11,019.41, down 61.46 points or 0.55%.
For tomorrow, our indicators have aligned themselves in fundamentally
breakeven patterns whose upside and downside appear limited near +/-0.4%.
***DESK OF DENHOLM***
This just in from Taipan's resident Editor-at-Large, Martin Denholm:
And the Chairman sat back in his rocking chair, took a swig of brandy, and
uttered: "Ah, yes - a measured pace. That's the ticket. I shall make it so."
After conveying his plan to the market, there's little room left for surprises
from Alan Greenspan and his fellow Federal Reserve bankers. And so it came
to pass on Tuesday, when the Fed bumped interest rates up another 0.25% to
1.75%.
After the Fed's two previous rate hikes on June 30 and August 10, the
NASDAQ stock exchange in particular followed an interesting trend, rallying
strongly after the announcements before selling off again in the days that
followed. In June, it signaled the start of a 300-point drop for the index.
And again this time the market initially reacted favorably to the news before
abruptly changing its mind and sliding back down significantly. Just take a look
at its performance today to see what I mean.
Next time we hear from the Fed's monetary policy committee will be a week
after the presidential election.
***Pack Up, Ship Out: We now turn to another Fed - FedEx. And it was
another fine set of results for the world's leading package shipper, which said
quarterly earnings more than doubled to US$330 million (US$1.08 per share)
for the quarter ending August 31, compared with US$128 million (42 cents
per share) a year earlier.
That came courtesy of an impressive 23% jump in sales to US$6.9 billion as
international, freight and ground deliveries notched up gains, prompting the
company to raise its forecast for the current quarter to between US$1.00 and
US$1.10 per share.
I don't usually mention company earnings reports here. So why FedEx? Well,
some folks see it as a barometer of economic health. More packages = more
business activity and stronger growth.
***France to Frolic in the Land of Budget Obedience? And you know it's a
good day when even France announces that its budget is set to meet
European Union deficit rules in 2005 - for the first time in four years.
Not sure the French folks will feel so great though, as the budget plan calls for
a slower pace of tax cuts and public spending reductions. I guess that means
their collective demeanor will go from sour to more sour! Especially since the
jobless rate is at a four-year high of 9.8% already.
Nevertheless, the proposal could see France's debt reduced from 3.6% of
GDP to 2.9% - a whisker under the EU limit of 3%.
***Another 48 Hours� But No More: Meanwhile, EU countries are set to
face off against the European Commission in a battle over working hours.
According to a new plan, the EC is aiming to end the trend of long working
hours by placing limits on the ability to opt out from the 48-hour workweek.
At the moment, many companies have collective bargaining agreements with
their employees that they can negotiate directly with them on working
conditions. But if new EC regulations are handed down, companies would
need to negotiate with unions instead, thus removing the right to work longer
hours.
To me, this looks like more unnecessary bureaucratic meddling - something
the Confederation of British Industry labels "unacceptable." Whatever
happened to individual choice in how many additional hours people want to
work?
With that, I'm outta here!
***TAIPAN TIDINGS***
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Flow Matrix Trader, I suggest you do.
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J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
and The Taipan Group's
247profits e-Dispatch Team
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