Nelayan, Your NFL Picks (Week 10) - Too many points

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2004 NFL - Week 10 You are subscriber #4427 out of 17286 total. Nelayan, Winning Week 9 (67% winning weeks to-date in 2004) Last week we went 3-1 ATS (10-5 on a star basis for +225 units) and 1-1 on the MoneyLine (3-3 on a star basis for +75 units). Overall a +300 unit weekend. Pittsburgh, Washington and Minnesota were the winners while Cleveland lost. Glad to bounce back nicely after a couple of down weeks. Overall we've won 6 out of the 9 regular season weeks - hopefully 7 out of 10 after this weekend. Week 10 Picks I've got five primary picks (2+ stars) and four one-star selections this Sunday. You can view all of my previous picks and prior newsletters/write-ups here. Your complimentary pick is below. Interested in checking out my premium picks? See below for ordering instructions. Good luck this weekend, Nelayan! From Last Week... *****Washington +3.5 (-110) at DETROIT ***Washington straight-up (+150) at DETROIT The Skins have been a major dissapointment this season. After all of the hype surrounding legendary NFC East coaches (Parcells, Gibbs), Tom Coughlin is having the biggest positive impact in the division. Washington is one of the teams I believe isn't as bad as their record indicates. They've been in all of their games this season and their average margin of loss has been just 3.5 points per game. Alot of this has to do with their defense, ranked #1 in the league. They scored the go-ahead touchdown last week late in the fourth quarter on a 43-yard Clinton Portis burst but the play was called back for a (some would say phantom) illegal motion penalty. Without that penalty, they most likely beat the Packers last week. The Lions might be the opposite. They have posted impressive wins against Houston and the Giants but they are just 1-2 at home this season and they've been blown out twice. Look beneath the surprising 4-3 record and we see a team with the 29th ranked defense and worst offense in the league. We are getting over a field goal against the worst offense in the league matching up against the best defense in the league - hmmmmm. Smells like value to me. I expect Detroit to struggle mightly and score few points. Meanwhile, I like Washington's offense to get on track against Detroit's pourous D. I like Washington to win this one outright in fairly easy fashion. In this league, medium-sized underdogs that have been held under 17 PPG for 3+ games tend to bounce back nicely against the spread. Bet 275 to win 250 on Washington +3.5 and another 150 to win 225 on the Skins to win the game. Result: Washington 17, Detroit 10 � **Houston +9 (-110) vs. INDIANAPOPLIS (Check latest line) Indianapolis' offense, and more specifically Peyton Manning, is on fire. They are gaining over 418 yards per game. But, their defense is allowing 417 per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing passes at a 71% clip. How can you lay 9 points on a team with a defense that is THAT bad? Houston is still not getting the respect they deserve. They are 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS including 2-1 against the number in games in which they are getting over 6 points. Don't read too much into Indianapolis' respectable defensive performance last week. The Vikings were without their top receiver and top running back and the Colts still failed to cover the spread at home on Monday night. The Texans are off a beating from the Denver Broncos. Again, don't read too much into that one either. The Texans had a team-record 109 yards in penalties and fell behind big early. It happens. In their other seven games, the Texans have outscored their opponents on average. I look at the loss to Denver as somewhat of a fluke and not representative of what this Texan squad is all about. Houston's 5th-ranked passing offense should shred Indianapolis' pass defense, which is dead last in the league. Manning will also have a huge day but I think the Texans keep this one closer than nine. Over the past three seasons, Houston is 6-1 ATS in road games after a loss by 10+ points. Underdogs off a large loss when playing a team that has allowed tons of points for multiple weeks cover at a clip of about 67%. Two stars here on the Texans. Bet 110 to win 100 on Houston +9. (Bet game @ BoDog | Bet game @ BetOnline) I have eight more premium picks for paying subscribers. Order for just $39. NFL Premium Picks My premium picks packages include my best picks and detailed analysis on every selected game. Choose from: This week's top selections: $39 A full month of top selections: $119 The remainder of the season: save the most! BoDog Sportsbook America's Sportsbook CNN, The Washington Post, USA Today, and The New York Times have featured industry leader, BoDog for its customer service, industry leading bonuses, extensive selections of wager and prop types, and the fastest payouts. 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