Just found this paper that shows in 1994 Lake Erie went from ~50% iced over on 
Jan 12 to ~100% on Jan 21 (Fig. 8).  I’m imagining grebes on 5000 square miles 
of lake getting confined to a smaller and smaller area over a week then 
abruptly on one calm night being forced to evacuate en masse.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077%3C0071%3AWWAICF%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Lake Erie was reported to be 95% ice covered last Thursday, so I imagine the 
most recent cold snap has by now pretty much eliminated that lake’s open water 
for waterfowl.

Bill E
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