Colin,

A former graduate student of mine alerted me to Box GEP, Hunter WG, Hunter JS. 
1978. Statistics for Experimenters. New York: Wiley Interscience in ~1984. I 
bought a new copy then and have very likely spent more time inside that book 
than any other over the years since then. So I’m entirely in your court about 
Box’s contributions.

On the other hand, as I diverged from crystallography into mechanistic 
enzymology and other areas, I began to realize that comments such as those you 
cited also have had the adverse affect of persuading people not to build models 
at all and even to induce real skepticism about building and testing models. I 
find that a shame.

Charlie

On Nov 6, 2022, at 3:12 PM, Nave, Colin (DLSLtd,RAL,LSCI) 
<000064fdcfc6624b-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk<mailto:000064fdcfc6624b-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk>>
 wrote:

You don't often get email from 
000064fdcfc6624b-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk<mailto:000064fdcfc6624b-dmarc-requ...@jiscmail.ac.uk>.
 Learn why this is important<https://aka.ms/LearnAboutSenderIdentification>
All these quotes are great fun and worth keeping in mind, along with many 
others. I hadn’t realised that the creationists had adopted James Clark Maxwell 
as one of their own. However he didn’t go as far as one present day scientist 
who believes the earth is no more than 10,000 years old. Which discipline? 
Palaeontology of course. This person is not even some old fossil.

I always liked George Box’s comments about models. I remember Eleanor Dodson 
saying, probably at some CCP4 refinement study weekend, that a structure 
obtained by protein crystallography was like a curate’s egg. She might have 
predated George Box with this thought.

There should not  be any doubt that AF2 models are useful though. The question 
is how far their usefulness extends.


From: CCP4 bulletin board <CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK<mailto:CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK>> 
On Behalf Of Bryan Lepore
Sent: 05 November 2022 17:03
To: CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK<mailto:CCP4BB@JISCMAIL.AC.UK>
Subject: Re: [ccp4bb] Another folding AI

And of course,

"... all models are approximations. Essentially, all models are wrong, but some 
are useful. However, the approximate nature of the model must always be borne 
in mind...."

Box, G. E. P.; Draper, N. R. (1987)
Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces
John Wiley & Sons

"Since all models are wrong the scientist must be alert to what is importantly 
wrong. It is inappropriate to be concerned about mice when there are tigers 
abroad."

Box, George E. P. (1976)
"Science and 
statistics"<http://www-sop.inria.fr/members/Ian.Jermyn/philosophy/writings/Boxonmaths.pdf>
Journal of the American Statistical 
Association<https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Journal_of_the_American_Statistical_Association>
71 (356): 791-799
doi<https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doi_(identifier)>:10.1080/01621459.1976.10480949<https://doi.org/10.1080%2F01621459.1976.10480949>

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong

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