Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in 1980 by attracting disaffected Democrats
in millions. They did not jump to Reagan because Mr Carter was a
particularly leftwing Democrat. Nor did Reagan appeal by watering his
positions down into centrist mush.

He ran as an unapologetic conservative, just as Mr Obama has run as an
unapologetic man of the left. But the revolutionary coalition that
Reagan formed was less ideological than he was. Reagan won because he
solicited the whole nation's support at a time when lesser politicians
mistook their parties' battles for the country's.

If Mr Obama wins, it will be in the same way. His appeal is not to be
found in the nuances of trade or health or tax policy.

Mr Obama wants to be president of the US. Mrs Clinton wants to capture
the government for her faction. Her election would bring four or eight
years more of the partisan venom that has prevailed in the past
decade, and almost certainly intensify it. Mr Obama thinks the
fighting has worn people out and that Americans are ready to unite
around a new set of goals. This is a more optimistic vision of the
electorate.

Mr Obama will win only if it is the more accurate one.

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