See more at
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/experience.html

How Good Are Experienced Presidents? 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Suppose you had to choose between two Presidential candidates, one of whom had 
spent 20 years in Congress plus had considerable other relevant experience and 
the other of whom had about half a dozen years in the Illinois state 
legislature and 2 years in Congress. Which one do you think would make a better 
President? If you chose #1, congratulations, you picked James Buchanan over 
Abraham Lincoln. Your pick disagrees with that of most historians, who see 
Lincoln as the greatest President ever and Buchanan as the second worst ever, 
better only than Warren "Teapot Dome" Harding. Both served in what was probably 
the most difficult period in American history, where slavery and secession tore 
the nation asunder. 

Before becoming President, Buchanan had served 6 years in the Pennsylvania 
state legislature, 10 years in the U.S. House of Representatives, 4 years as 
ambassador to Russia, 10 years in the Senate, 4 years as Secretary of State, 
and 4 years as Ambassador to England. Talk about experience, Buchanan did just 
about everything except serve on the Supreme Court, a job he was offered by 
President Polk and refused. Yet by any measure, he wasn't up to the job as 
President. In contrast, Abraham Lincoln served 8 years in the Illinois 
legislature and one term in the U.S. House (1847-1849), a decade before 
becoming President. The rest of the time he was a lawyer in private practice, a 
bit thin one might say.

Of course, these are only two data points. What about all the other Presidents? 
Weren't the experienced ones the better Presidents? Fortunately, there have 
been a number of surveys of presidential greatness, some by professional 
historians and some by the general public. Many of these are given in the 
Wikipedia page on Historical rankings of U.S. Presidents. The amount of 
experience each President had before taking office is well known since the 
lives of all Presidents have been extremely well documented. Thus the basic 
data--years of experience and ranking--are available making a statistical 
analysis of experience vs. greatness possible.

David A. Levine of New York has collected the data from Wikipedia and done some 
analysis of it. Let's start with a table of the Presidents listed in order of 
their consensus rank in the 12 surveys given in the above Wikipedia page.


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