I think the US is in a no-win situation here.

We _cannot_ back the protest movement, if we want it to succeed. Nothing
would de-legitimize the movement quicker in the eyes of Egyptians and the
rest of the Middle East than US backing.

We _cannot_ back Mubarak if we want him to live out the month. Our backing
would doom him quicker than his own secret police.


I think the best we can do is warn Mubarak in private that suppression will
mean loss of funding.
And I think we need to talk to the military separately, and make sure they
understand that they will retain funding if they don't weight in on the side
of Mubarak against their own people.

But, truthfully, I think we can expect a little (or a lot) of blood to be
shed in the next few days. Revolution is seldom bloodless. And the thugs and
police are not going to go easily.

But, once they start going to town, I think that will be enough excuse for
the military to step in and shut down the violence, which will mean the end
to Mubarak's police, since without violence they have no power.





On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 4:09 PM, Vivec <gel21...@gmail.com> wrote:

>
> It's the truth.
>
> It is what caused Condeleeza Rice in her speech to say that in the
> past the United STates has pursued Stability in the middle east at the
> expense of Democracy, and now has ended up with neither.
> This was 5 years ago.
>
> *now* however everyone takes a hands off approach.
>
>


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