> -----Original Message----- > From: Dave Watts [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Saturday, December 24, 2005 1:24 AM > To: CF-Talk > Subject: RE: MS Buys Opera > > I should preface this by saying that I have no idea whether this rumor is > anything more than that. However, I can see some good reasons why MS might > buy Opera, whether they actually do it or not.
Well - it is false, according to both MS and Opera (and Google... the other company supposedly in the "bidding war"). > > PIE does the job that I need it to do. > > Well, sure, but the fact that there's a market for alternatives makes it > clear that you (and I) aren't necessarily representative of Pocket PC > users. > People don't buy browsers for their regular computers, but they're willing > to plunk down twenty bucks to get a new one for their PDA. But not many. In fact very few. I can't find the research I'm remembering but most handheld device users don't USE a browser. Most handheld devices aren't connected. Out of those that ARE most are email-only (RIM devices like Blackberry) and most others are dedicated platforms (Hiptops for example). Some other general facts also cut into the potential share. Most people (upwards of 80%) don't install new software on their handhelds - they use them as is. A significant number of celluar company-provided devices (especially Symbian devices since they lack memory protection) are locked such that you CAN'T install arbitrary software. You can install only what the company provides (this is annoying but does save on support costs). > > Mobile devices are still a niche... and the browser is a > > small niche on them... and Opera's in a niche of that. > > It's niche-cubed. Doesn't seem very attractive to me. > > What you call a niche, others might call an emerging market. That sounds > incredibly attractive to me. Perhaps... but while online-enabled cell phones are indeed on a (slight) rise the handheld market overall (palmtops) has decline steadily for the past two years - upwards of 20% per quarter. (Here's a summary from ZDNet: http://blogs.zdnet.com/ITFacts/index.php?blogthis=1&p=8478) This can be attributed in large part to the rise of cheap laptops (there's no longer a need for "Laptop replacements"). Some is definitely related to the rise of RIM and simple, easy-to-use remote email (that's really the "killer app" for online handhelds). Some of the market has also clearly went to more complex cellphones... but that market hasn't risen nearly as much as the other has fallen. Most of the new business in handhelds these days is moving to vertical markets. And it's exactly these markets that will maintain strict control over the software platform. SmartPhone sales are doing well, but not "gangbusters" well. It's predicted that SmartPhones will account for up to 10% of all cell phones by 2009 (right now it's about 3%). But the drivers for that are not general online access - it's cameras and personal messaging. So while I think certain segments of the market have great potential much of it has reached a plateau over the past 7 years and is now slumping something fierce. Other segments (like remote messaging) are flourishing through sharp focus and vertical applications. > > Which is exactly why I think you'll see improvements to > > PIE... but buying another piece of software to replace > > it just isn't something MS would do I think. > > Why not? They do this all the time. It's not like Internet Explorer was > created from scratch - it was based on functionality licensed from > Spyglass/Mosaic, if I recall correctly. Microsoft is surprisingly free of > "not invented here" syndrome. That depends on where in the market they are. When entering a market MS is more than willing to purchase a product and make it their own. They do this all the time: buying Visio, Giant, Virtual PC, Citrix, etc. However when already IN a market they just don't do this (or at least not as a habit). They may buy a product to kill it (FoxPro for example) but I can't think of single example where they retired a product through purchase. > > I think they'd probably begin with Windows Media Player or > > MS Reader - something more broadly applicable. Both of those > > products also seem to make more business sense they would > > improve sales of related materials (DRM'd music and books). > > Microsoft, unlike Sony, doesn't have a direct stake in these sales. > However, > Windows Media Player is already the focus of significant development on > all > Microsoft platforms, but more on Windows CE (and CE.NET/Windows > Mobile/etc) > than any other right now. There are plenty of dedicated audio-video > players > running Windows CE now. Actually MS does have a direct stake in this in several ways. MSN Music and Radio are both pay services (direct to consumer music sales) while the DRM division does indeed see a cut (via licensing) of any music store using MS DRM. Also the "Play for Sure" logo program is, I believe, a revenue source (similar to the "Windows Compatible" logo program). > As for MS Reader, I'd wager that for every one person who's used it on > their > Pocket PC, ten use Pocket IE. I'd probably place them about even. Even just from the perspective that the vast majority of PocketPCs are not used online it seems unlikely that the spread is that great. But while MS Reader is DEFINATELY a niche player ebook sales are growing steadily and well. http://www.writenews.com/2004/060404_ebooks_record_quarter.htm If we agree to label online browser usage as an "emerging market" then I think we must also label ebooks in the same way. If anything the indicators here seem more attractive to me than for the handheld browser market. Jim Davis ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Logware (www.logware.us): a new and convenient web-based time tracking application. 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