@Donna Yet, at the other end of the spectrum, there are some that seem to believe in scientific theories religiously. As far as I know, no scientific theory can be proven right; it can only be proven wrong if its predictions break down.
@Don > Unfortunately earth events can't be rerun for reproducible tests. Right, including global economic and social developments. That is when model/computer simulations, affected by its assumptions (and perhaps by potential nefarious maneuvering), come into play. At any rate, decades ago was another long-term report based on model/computer simulations of economic and population growth: The Limits of Grow. It got a lot of press coverage and there were endless discussions for a while. Nowadays it seems to be largely forgotten. @Raul Although the "actual" rate(s) might not necessarily apply everywhere, it seems to be extremely unlikely that I could be in trouble. On Tue, Mar 6, 2018 at 9:59 PM, Raul Miller <[email protected]> wrote: > That was from memory. I should have looked it up before posting. > Sorry... lazy... > > Looking at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise I seem to have > gotten numbers much higher (roughly double) the actual rate. > > Thanks, > > -- > Raul > > > On Tue, Mar 6, 2018 at 8:14 PM, Jose Mario Quintana > <[email protected]> wrote: > > > That said, I hope your property stays in good condition. > > > > Thank you. > > > > Reportedly, the sea levels have been rising at least for the last few > > thousand years. The question is if there is an acceleration. > Apparently, > > Al Gore's house is near the coast of California. What is its > elevation? I > > have no idea. > > > >> The models can be wrong, and the change can still be happening. (If I > >> understand properly, we've been seeing global average sea level rise > >> at a rate of approximately 1 inch every five or six years since > >> roughly the 1920s. It might not be that that sea level rise is because > > > > Do you have any references? > > > > On Tue, Mar 6, 2018 at 7:48 PM, Raul Miller <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > >> Eh... I'm not sure anything I said should be a cause for rejoicing? > >> > >> The models can be wrong, and the change can still be happening. (If I > >> understand properly, we've been seeing global average sea level rise > >> at a rate of approximately 1 inch every five or six years since > >> roughly the 1920s. It might not be that that sea level rise is because > >> of changes in the amount of CO2 that's in the atmosphere, or maybe the > >> fraction of the rise which attributable to CO2 is significantly wrong > >> in the models, or maybe atmospheric CO2 has had a dampening effect on > >> the actual mechanisms, somehow... or maybe even CO2 is more > >> significant than the models propose, but something which has not been > >> accounted for has dampened that effect... but any of these would just > >> mean we don't adequately understand what's going on - not that it's > >> not happening.) > >> > >> Also, there's erosion effects and so on that can also be significant. > >> > >> That said, I hope your property stays in good condition. > >> > >> -- > >> Raul > >> > >> > >> On Tue, Mar 6, 2018 at 7:32 PM, Jose Mario Quintana > >> <[email protected]> wrote: > >> > I am glad to hear that (my house in Miami Beach faces the Bay's > waters). > >> > > >> > On Tue, Mar 6, 2018 at 6:59 PM, Raul Miller <[email protected]> > >> wrote: > >> > > >> >> I have heard a variety of disagreements, both with that premise, and > >> >> with attempts at experiments. > >> >> > >> >> (Including, since you brought up climate change, an attempt (by a > >> >> reputable MIT graduate) to reproduce Hans Hug's data (funding for lab > >> >> costs was there, and interns to do the legwork were available, but > >> >> because there was a possibility that experimental results could > >> >> conflict with current climate change models, lab access was denied). > >> >> See http://www.john-daly.com/forcing/hug-barrett.htm and > >> >> http://www.john-daly.com/artifact.htm for writeups on what he was > >> >> trying to reproduce.) > >> >> > >> >> Anyways, yeah, it's easy to find people to disagree with almost > >> anything. > >> >> > >> >> Nevertheless, there's actually been quite a bit of notice attracted > to > >> >> this issue: > >> >> > >> >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis > >> >> > >> >> https://www.nature.com/news/1-500-scientists-lift-the-lid- > >> >> on-reproducibility-1.19970 > >> >> > >> >> So I guess I don't feel I need to place a lot of stock in people who > >> >> simply "disagree". Much better to show the relevant work, in my > >> >> opinion. (And, in some cases, the necessary work has been done. So > >> >> it's not like I'm asking for the impossible.) > >> >> > >> >> Thanks, > >> >> > >> >> -- > >> >> Raul > >> >> > >> >> On Tue, Mar 6, 2018 at 6:05 PM, Jose Mario Quintana > >> >> <[email protected]> wrote: > >> >> > < One weakness of the academic publishing system has been that it > >> never > >> >> > cared much about reproducible scientific results. Hopefully that > >> >> > > >> >> > I suspect some scientists (or "scientists" depending on one's > point of > >> >> > view), for example, those working on Climate Change (Global > Warming) > >> and > >> >> > related matters, might disagree with the premise. > >> >> > > >> >> > On Mon, Mar 5, 2018 at 6:55 PM, Raul Miller <[email protected] > > > >> >> wrote: > >> >> > > >> >> >> That's an interesting question... > >> >> >> > >> >> >> One weakness of the academic publishing system has been that it > never > >> >> >> cared much about reproducible scientific results. Hopefully that > >> >> >> segment of academia can muster some way of supporting efforts to > >> >> >> support / refute such work. This will be difficult because of > >> >> >> communication issues - it's all too easy to refute something > >> different > >> >> >> from the original. But, also, because of human social issues - > people > >> >> >> do not like dealing with failures. > >> >> >> > >> >> >> But, also, not everything is science. > >> >> >> > >> >> >> So I expect things to fragment somewhat - there's the political > >> >> >> patronage side of things, the engineering practicality side of > >> things, > >> >> >> the scientific reproducibility and extension work side of things, > >> >> >> there's the artistic merit side of things, there's the historical > >> >> >> perspectives side of things, there's the health benefit side of > >> >> >> things, there's the accounting verification side of things, and so > >> >> >> on... > >> >> >> > >> >> >> People who can tie into widespread support will tend to do well > >> >> >> regardless (think: football, for example). Others... well, I think > >> >> >> it's going to depend somewhat on the discipline. > >> >> >> > >> >> >> I don't think the peer review system is going to just go away, > but I > >> >> >> think it's going to be seeing some different competition... > >> >> >> > >> >> >> Working code (github contributions, perhaps) might be one example > of > >> >> >> this. But computerized platforms tend to come and go far more > quickly > >> >> >> than the printed page. > >> >> >> > >> >> >> Mostly, I guess... anything involving people tends to need > concerted > >> >> >> effort to deal with. > >> >> >> > >> >> >> This was probably not a useful answer. > >> >> >> > >> >> >> -- > >> >> >> Raul > >> >> >> > >> >> >> > >> >> >> On Mon, Mar 5, 2018 at 6:11 PM, Ian Clark <[email protected]> > >> >> wrote: > >> >> >> > I've given up writing for Vector. (That's a terrible thing to > say > >> for > >> >> >> > someone still loosely attached to the Vector committee.) > >> >> >> > > >> >> >> > Why write a letter on vellum with a quill pen when you can pick > up > >> the > >> >> >> > phone? > >> >> >> > > >> >> >> > Of course, if I still had an academic reputation to defend, > funding > >> >> >> sources > >> >> >> > to keep sweet, administrators to browbeat, pretty students to > wow, > >> I'd > >> >> >> > think differently. My shelf full of journals would be like the > >> >> diploma on > >> >> >> > the wall. But the old systems are withering away. > >> >> >> > > >> >> >> > Yet academics continue to need accreditation, good peer-reviews, > >> >> >> > publications for their CV (in case they get hounded out of their > >> >> school). > >> >> >> > What's to replace the old systems? Facebook Likes? > >> >> >> > > >> >> >> > > >> >> >> > On Mon, Mar 5, 2018 at 6:00 PM, 'Pascal Jasmin' via Programming > < > >> >> >> > [email protected]> wrote: > >> >> >> > > >> >> >> >> I asked for feedback on choosing one of 2 topics but received > no > >> >> reply. > >> >> >> >> > >> >> >> >> From: Cliff Reiter <[email protected]> > >> >> >> >> To: [email protected] > >> >> >> >> Sent: Monday, March 5, 2018 10:54 AM > >> >> >> >> Subject: Re: [Jprogramming] RV: JoJ 2018 > >> >> >> >> > >> >> >> >> Dear J forum, > >> >> >> >> Writing for the Journal of J or Vector is different from > writing > >> for > >> >> the > >> >> >> >> Jforums or Wiki. All those venues are a valuable resource for > us > >> who > >> >> >> >> work with J. I encourage us to supply all those forums with > >> >> material. I > >> >> >> >> submitted a paper to Vector a few months ago: > >> >> >> >> http://archive.vector.org.uk/art10501760 > >> >> >> >> and I noted that they too didn't have an issue in 2017. > >> >> >> >> > >> >> >> >> I plan to submit an article to JoJ in a month or so. I would > >> rather > >> >> not > >> >> >> >> be the only article in an issue. Anyone else game to submit > >> >> notes/papers > >> >> >> >> to the journals most relevant to J? I would love to see our > >> journals > >> >> >> >> have the some of the awesome energy that the forums have! > >> >> >> >> Best, Cliff > >> >> >> >> > >> >> >> >> > >> >> >> >> On 1/15/2018 7:25 AM, mikel paternain wrote: > >> >> >> >> > Hi everybody > >> >> >> >> > > >> >> >> >> > We have not received any contributions to publish in 2017. > >> >> >> >> > > >> >> >> >> > JoJ was born to collect works on J. > >> >> >> >> > > >> >> >> >> > Send contributions to [email protected]<http:// > >> >> >> >> webmail.journalofj.com/imp/message.php?mailbox=INBOX. > >> >> Enviados&index=17# > >> >> >> > > >> >> >> >> > > >> >> >> >> > Thanks in advance > >> >> >> >> > > >> >> >> >> > JoJ > >> >> >> >> > > >> >> >> >> > ------------------------------------------------------------ > >> >> >> ---------- > >> >> >> >> > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/ > >> >> >> forums.htm > >> >> >> >> > >> >> >> >> ------------------------------------------------------------ > >> >> ---------- > >> >> >> >> For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/ > >> >> forums.htm > >> >> >> >> > >> >> >> >> > >> >> >> >> ------------------------------------------------------------ > >> >> ---------- > >> >> >> >> For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/ > >> >> forums.htm > >> >> >> >> > >> >> >> > ------------------------------------------------------------ > >> >> ---------- > >> >> >> > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/ > >> >> forums.htm > >> >> >> ------------------------------------------------------------ > >> ---------- > >> >> >> For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/ > >> forums.htm > >> >> >> > >> >> > ------------------------------------------------------------ > >> ---------- > >> >> > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/ > >> forums.htm > >> >> ------------------------------------------------------------ > ---------- > >> >> For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/ > forums.htm > >> >> > >> > ------------------------------------------------------------ > ---------- > >> > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/ > forums.htm > >> ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > >> For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm > >> > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- For information about J forums see http://www.jsoftware.com/forums.htm
