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India and
Pakistan deserve to be congratulated for taking firm steps towards
the trilateral overland natural gas pipeline involving Iran. Despite
the shadow of US opposition, and the inevitable cost escalation
involved, the first meeting of the Indo-Pak Joint Working Group on
the pipeline in Delhi this week decided to address the technical and
financial nitty-gritty of the project. After a few more rounds of
talks between India, Pakistan and Iran, the three are expected to
unveil a broad framework.
The road ahead will, nevertheless, be a long one. Getting there
involves tough bargaining. Negotiations on the price of the gas to
be delivered could turn out to be a prolonged exercise as supplier
Iran and consumers, India and Pakistan, press for the most
beneficial terms. Then there is the question of transit fees, where
Pakistan will have to temper its expectations. Above all, there is
the difficult question of security. Much of this pipeline will run
through the restive homeland of the Baluch, straddling the boundary
between Iran and Pakistan. Often the dreams of central governments
to build mega projects clash with the aspirations of local
populations. Such is the case in Baluchistan. Pakistan will have its
work cut out in demonstrating that it can ensure the safety of the
pipeline. India, which only recently overcame its reservations about
the project, would also be looking for a political quid pro quo. It
wants Islamabad to give up its opposition to overland transit for
its goods and people to Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia.
US opposition to the pipeline, involving its unfolding
confrontation with Iran, is perhaps among the least of the projects
problems. Overcoming the others is the real challenge in finalising
a project that promises to transform the geopolitics of South Asia
and the Persian Gulf by linking them firmly in arrangements for
energy and economic interdependence. This agreement between India
and Pakistan would also be a model for similar arrangements for the
transport of gas from Central Asia, when it is available, to India
through Afghanistan and Pakistan.
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