The main economic analysts of today share their
thoughts of tomorrow
What the year 2020 will be like?
Although it seems not a long way away, still it is wrapped in mystery.
Some 50 years ago sci-fi writers were foretelling the future without any
doubts. Experts of today are more careful in their predictions. The world
is changing so quickly that the human mind is unable to keep up. Experts from the research
department of Deutsche Bank under famous analyst Dr. Norbert Walter
decided to take a look at the future. Their research is based on analysis
of economic situation in 34 countries.
It turned out that euro zone bankers could not imagine the
world without the US dollar as the main currency and means of payment even
in 2020. According to their forecasts, the world will stay unidirectional
with only one superpower - the USA, GDP of which will reach $17-18 billion
by that time.
Experts from Deutsche Bank certainly expect competition of
dollar and Chinese yuan in 2020. Analysts are sure that in 15 years china
and India will be some of the leading nations of the world. China, for
instance, will become the world assembly shop and the second superpower,
followed by India. However, the latter will have to carry out reforms more
aggressively, Deutsche Bank. "Further reforms will allow India to keep its
growth high at six percent every of next ten to fifteen years. If the
reforms are carried out aggressively the growth of GDP may reach seven or
eight percent", Norbert Walter said at the seminar of Indian-German
Chamber of Commerce.
At
the same time the role of the EU will become less and less important,
according to the research. Besides, it is said that the economies of some
EU members including France and Germany will lose their positions in the
world.
The growth rate of
Spain and Ireland will be higher than average European due to the openness
of their markets. Another positive factor in their development will be
dynamism of investors, favorable demographic perspectives and balanced
immigration policy. Experts came to the conclusion that as far as politics
is concerned European states have to develop structural political system
that can guarantee their further integration. Great changes both in
economic infrastructure and social system of European states are needed in
order to overcome negative tendencies.
It is worth mentioning
that Deutsche Bank research is contrary to that made by another European
analytical centre. In March investment group Goldman Sachs published the
work of its chief economist Jim O'Neill about the future of world economy.
O'Neill is a legendary economist that became famous after his main
forecast - dollar's landslide - became a reality.
O'Neill thinks that in terms of living standards Russia will
be ahead of Italy and Germany by 2050. When it comes to GDP it will leave
France and Great Britain behind.
According to O'Neill, four developing countries Brazil,
Russia, India and China (so-called BRIC) will be ahead of six largest
industrial countries of the world in terms of cumulative USD GDP. He says
that China can leave the US behind as early as by 2040, whereas India will
be ahead of Japan by 2035 and Russia can outrun any country in Western
Europe by 2030.