''Intelligence Brief: Elections in
Honduras''
n the first
of the wave of a dozen presidential elections to be held in Latin America during
the next 12 months, voters in Honduras gave the Liberal Party of Honduras
(P.L.H.) candidate Manuel Zelaya a narrow edge over his National Party of
Honduras (P.N.H.) rival Porfirio Lobo Sosa in November 27 polls. The relatively
peaceful and orderly vote was preceded by a campaign marked by vituperative
rhetoric and insults from both sides, and was followed by a delay in tallying
the results -- explained by computer problems -- that dragged on for a week and
precipitated a confrontation between the contending parties that only ended on
December 7 when Lobo Sosa conceded defeat.
Analysts are closely watching
the unfolding election cycle in Latin America to determine whether it will
confirm a shift to the left in the region that has already brought Venezuela,
Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay into a grouping that challenges the U.S. plan for
a Free Trade Area of the Americas (F.T.A.A.), Washington's strategic dominance
of the Western Hemisphere and the "Washington Consensus" on economic policy that
promotes market reforms at the expense of regulation and the social safety
net.
The vote in Honduras shows that any supposed shift in Latin American
political sentiment must be tempered by the specific domestic situation of each
country and, most importantly, by the position of each country in the
hemispheric balance of power which is determined by the face-off between the
North American power center led by the United States and the South American
power center led by Brazil.
In Honduras, the bitterly contested campaign
did not reflect a partisan divide based on ideological and policy differences,
but evinced a conflict of traditional political, regional and personal
loyalties. Both candidates mixed extravagant populist rhetoric with consistent
commitment to the market model and to the Central American Free Trade Agreement
(C.A.F.T.A.), which is Washington's instrument for maintaining its economic
dominance in Central America. The basis for the similarity of the two
candidates' approaches is the dependence of Honduras on the United States, which
effectively blocks any leftward political shift, even under the condition of
popular discontent over economic problems.
Trapped
Honduras
Honduras is a country that is trapped in its past by its
economic weakness and its consequent dependence on the U.S. for markets,
investment and economic aid. With a population of 7.2 million, Honduras has 1.2
million unemployed, which translates into 53 percent of its people living below
the poverty line and one of the widest wealth gaps between rich and poor in the
world.
The country has not yet recovered from the devastation to its
agricultural sector caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, is in the midst of a wave
of violent crime -- some of which is fueled by "maras" (gangs that originated
among Central American migrants to Southern California) that are engaged in the
illegal drug and arms trades -- and is still feeling its way out of a period of
military rule that ended two decades ago, but the effects of which still linger.
[See: "Central
America's Street Gangs Are Drawn into the World of Geopolitics"]
With
an agricultural economy that remains dominated by large landowners, a small
manufacturing sector directed toward the domestic market and an underdeveloped
infrastructure that hampers the exploitation of its mineral resources, Honduras
has become economically dependent on remittances from 800,000 to one million
emigrants in the U.S., and on the "maquila" factories that import textiles and
manufacture apparel, mainly for U.S. companies. Sixty-nine percent of Honduran
exports go to the U.S., which is also the largest donor of foreign aid to the
country. American businesses provide 44 percent of Honduras' foreign direct
investment, concentrated in the maquila sector, which is threatened by cheaper
Asian producers, and banana plantations.
Given its economic dependence on
the U.S., Honduras has been Washington's most reliable Central American ally,
allowing its territory to be used for training camps and staging bases for
Washington's clients in the Central American civil wars in El Salvador and
Nicaragua during the 1980s. The U.S. currently maintains a small military
presence in Honduras devoted to counter-narcotics, counter-terrorism, disaster
relief and civil affairs missions. Honduras contributed a token force to the
U.S. intervention in Iraq, which it has since withdrawn, and has been a firm
supporter of C.A.F.T.A. Acquiescing in the disciplines of the Washington
Consensus, Tegucigalpa has received Washington's support for debt relief and has
qualified for grants under Washington's Millennium Fund, which makes aid
contingent on market reforms.
The combination of economic weakness and
dependence has frozen Honduras' politics into a pattern that was set in the
early twentieth century, pitting nominally conservative and liberal parties --
both representing the country's economic elite -- against one another. At their
inception, the parties were genuinely divided on the issue of clericalism, but,
as that issue faded, they have become factions of the elite vying for spoils.
Both candidates in the November election are large landowners who gained their
support -- particularly in rural areas -- on the basis of traditional regional
loyalties and the influence of local notables. Although Honduras experienced a
leftist insurgency in the 1980s, it was smaller than those in neighboring
countries and its legalized remnants have not been able to form an effective
party.
The Election
The stasis of Honduran politics was
demonstrated by the presidential campaign in which both candidates made promises
to alleviate the conditions of the poor while focusing on the issue of fighting
gang crime. Lobo Sosa said that he would create 600,000 new jobs, offer 200,000
scholarships to improve access to education, provide universal health care,
grant 850,000 families title to land and initiate irrigation projects. Zelaya
promised job training, educational reform, a downsizing of the state
bureaucracy, "civil assemblies" to monitor government, a guarantee of food for
the poor and 400,000 new jobs. Having stated those positions, the candidates,
both of whom hired top advisers who had worked in U.S. presidential campaigns,
proceeded to narrow the campaign to the clash between Lobo Sosa's proposal to
institute the death penalty for serious crimes and Zelaya's defense of life
sentences along with job training to reduce recruitment into the
maras.
In light of Honduras' economic conditions, it is unlikely that
Zelaya will be able to make good on his promises of poverty reduction or to curb
the crime wave. His narrow victory of 49.9 percent of the vote to Lobo Sosa's
46.2 percent was attributed by local analysts to a marginal public fear that
Lobo Sosa was veering too much in the direction of restoring the harsh
repressive tactics that had characterized authoritarian P.N.H. rule in the 1930s
and had carried over into post-World War II military dictatorships and the
counter-insurgency of the 1980s. Zelaya was perceived by the swing voters as the
candidate more sensitive to social concerns, but there was little public
optimism that the P.L.H.'s campaign slogan -- "Urge to Change" -- would
consummate in results. The turnout of registered voters was only 40
percent.
The Bottom Line
Weak and dependent, Honduras is
likely to remain firmly in Washington's fold.
During the uneasy period
when vote counting was delayed, Lobo Sosa initiated a meeting between himself,
Zelaya and U.S. Ambassador Charles Ford. Although Washington was thought to have
favored the P.N.H. and its hard line, the discussions probably paved the way for
Lobo Sosa's concession. Washington calculated that Zelaya, who had named his
cabinet before the final tally was in, was a better guarantor of stability than
Lobo Sosa, who had mobilized a demonstration in Tegucigalpa of 3000 of his
supporters to protest the announcement by Honduras' Supreme Electoral Tribunal
of Zelaya's victory, based on a partial count. Outgoing P.N.H. President Ricardo
Maduro had also urged restraint on Lobo Sosa "in order to avoid a tragedy,"
indicating a coordinated effort to smooth the transition.
The first of
Latin America's presidential elections has confirmed the extant hemispheric
power balance, with Washington maintaining its dominant influence in Honduras.
In the absence of a credible populist movement, Honduran politics is likely to
remain trapped in the past, with disaffection continuing to flow into cynicism.
Report Drafted By:
Dr. Michael A. Weinstein
