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Big media and the internet

Net dreams

Traditional media companies are making a huge push onto the
internet

March 16, 2006, The Economist Newspaper

http://www.economist.com/business/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=5637169

MARCH Madness starts this week in America, and for the rest
of the month millions of basketball fans will watch the
country's college teams dunk on each other, until the final
of the men's national championship on April 3rd. CBS, a
broadcast-television network, has shown the event since
1982-but this year it is conducting an experiment. As well as
broadcasting the games on TV, it is streaming them live over
the internet free of charge, accompanied by advertisements.

CBS's move is one of many recent efforts by traditional media
companies to try to develop 'new media' revenue streams.
Music firms have sold their material online for a while.
Newspaper and magazine publishers are busy trying to attract
readers on the internet. But now the world's largest
entertainment companies are rushing to distribute their video
content online and, to a lesser extent, to the users of
mobile phones.

Old media companies are also snapping up internet firms as
fast as they can. Most of these are profitable, in contrast
to the dotcoms of a few years ago-but only just. On March 6th
NBC Universal, a media firm owned by General Electric, spent
$600m on iVillage, a website for women which had a profit of
$9.5m in 2005. Last year Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation
spent more than a billion dollars buying barely profitable
internet companies.

Has the industry gone as crazy as basketball fans in
springtime? The answer is that traditional media companies
have no choice but to experiment. They are in mature
businesses, many of which are endangered by the internet and
other technologies. Investors have sold down their shares.
This week, Mr Murdoch warned in a speech in London that
changing technology means that 'power is moving away from the
old elite in our industry-the editors, the chief executives
and, let's face it, the proprietors.' Old media companies
badly need to persuade the stockmarket that the digital era
brings them opportunities as well as threats.

Desperately seeking digital revenues 'Everyone's got a
digital tsar now, or if they haven't, they're frantically
searching for one,' says Peter Kreisky, a media consultant.
Many large media firms have recently formed separate digital
divisions. With the exception of Time Warner, which in 2000
merged with AOL, an internet-access firm, most of these
contribute only a tiny slice of their parent company's
revenues (see chart). But they are growing rapidly. Jessica
Reif Cohen, a media analyst at Merrill Lynch, reckons that
profits from online advertising and paid content could
represent up to 8-9% of total earnings for Disney, Viacom and
News Corporation in 3-5 years and considerably more for Time
Warner, courtesy of AOL. The most obvious opportunity is to
put the content they already own on new platforms. Media
companies can charge people directly, or sell ads around it.
In October last year Disney took the big step of allowing two
of its hit dramas-'Lost' and 'Desperate Housewives'-to be
downloaded from Apple's iTunes download service on to iPods
for $1.99 an episode. Programmes from NBC and from Viacom's
cable channels soon followed, and CBS has put two of its
hits, 'CSI' and 'Survivor', on Google Video Store, the search
firm's new video service. Time Warner, Disney and Viacom have
all started broadband channels.

Only a fraction of the media firms' video content is online,
certainly, but every few weeks another slew of popular
programmes makes the leap. In just a few years, says Michael
Wolf, president and chief operating officer of MTV Networks,
almost all the company's content will be available online and
on several platforms. Because people in offices will be able
to gain access to it, he says, 'daytime will become the new
primetime.' (For people watching March Madness at work, CBS
has thoughtfully provided a 'Boss Button', which at a
moment's notice calls up a fake spreadsheet.)

Shifting onto the internet will take time, because powerful
forces are lined up against changes to video distribution,
says Josh Bernoff, a television analyst at Forrester
Research. Most important are huge concerns about digital
piracy, although Apple and Google do seem to have eased those
with digital-rights-management technology, which guards
against unauthorised copying. Content owners also worry that
putting their video online might mean that fewer people would
watch programmes on TV, which is where they earn most of
their advertising revenue.

And none of the conglomerates want to jeopardise the
phenomenal profitability of DVDs. So far, Hollywood has
barely allowed its films onto the internet, and certainly not
before their release on DVD. But even that taboo may soon be
broken. Amazon, an online retailer, is reportedly in talks
with three Hollywood studios about a service that would allow
people to download new movies at the same time as they come
out on DVD.

Which of the big entertainment conglomerates is furthest
ahead? That, of course, is fiercely debated by rival
executives. Many were jealous of Mr Murdoch's purchase of
MySpace.com, a social-networking site, because its soaring
popularity has pushed News Corporation up among the giants of
the internet by page views. Viacom is believed to have wanted
to buy the site, but it lost out to News Corporation at the
last moment. Now, however, after a furore over men lying
about their age on MySpace.com so as to meet under-age girls,
competitors are feeling a bit less envious.

Nevertheless, there is no doubt that News Corporation has
moved most vigorously among large media firms. Viacom, on the
other hand, has missed some opportunities, perhaps partly
because it has spent the last year or so concentrating on
splitting from its sister company, CBS Corporation. As well
as missing MySpace.com, it has still to launch the music
download service it has talked of for years (it is planning a
music service called URGE with Microsoft for later in 2006)
and in the meantime Apple has seized the online music market.

Each of the firms has a different strategy for the internet.
Viacom and News Corporation want to build or acquire brand
new online businesses as well as to expand their existing
brands onto the internet. Disney and Time Warner, on the
other hand, are mostly putting their own programming online.
Jeff Bewkes, chief operating officer of Time Warner, reckons
that one-off download deals such as Disney's and NBC's with
Apple's iTunes will prove to be merely a beginning. 'These
are fine trials and they may turn up something,' he says,
'but the evidence says that the real money goes to ad-
supported and subscription models.' Vivendi Universal, a
French media firm, is being more cautious than the American
firms. Its chief executive, Jean-Bernard Levy, says it will
exploit the internet to distribute its content, but not as a
general-purpose advertising medium. There is still plenty of
doubt over whether traditional media companies have the right
stuff to prosper on the internet. But now no one can accuse
them of not trying. Perhaps the most promising change is that
executives at all levels are fully aware that succeeding
online means personal reward. As one manager explains: 'In
2002 it was career death to be involved with the internet,
now it's a career priority.'

Copyright (c) 2006 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist
Group. All rights reserved.


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