http://rigint.blogspot.com/2006/07/ducks-head-soup.html#comments

     Howdy,

     In refering back to my source material, let me correct, refine  
Iran's position in worldwide opium production.

     Again refering to the CIA World Fact book and the 2006 UN World  
Drug Report.

     Iran has the highest percentage of it's adult (15-65) population  
as opiate users, 2.8% (that's where that number floating 'round my  
head came from).

     Now with an adult population of 47,379,174 gives us around  
1,300,000 users, rounding down to a million again about 370 tonnes a  
year. Now this is figuring heroin and so the model must be refined  
some more because much of the use in Pakistan is strictly opium use.  
But there is also a heroin using population in Pakistan.

     If one looks at the figures of usage versus production one sees  
that there is a disconnect.

     With one tonne of heroin production requiring about ten tonnes  
of opium. Which is reflected in the UN figures of 4620 tonnes of  
opium and 472 "potential production" in 2005.

     So let us say Iran has 250,000 heroin addicts and 750,000 opium  
addicts, each figuring a gram a day of their substance a day yeilds:
     Heroin about .25 tonnes of heroin a day and 93 tonnes of heroin  
a year.

     For the 750,000 opium addicts, they need ,75 tonnes of opium a  
day or 277 tonnes of opium a year.

     So taking the ten percent rule of thumb.

     Iran uses 930 plus 277 or around 1200 tonnes of opium just to  
take care of its, according to "official" UN report, internal opiated  
population.

     So where does it come from?

     In looking at a Dutch report from 1935 here is the listing of  
opium production leaders 1931-1935. With limited information on  
Afghanistan and none at all from French Indo-Chiina.

     1. China
     2. India (Reported production dropping fast)
     3. Iran
     4. Asia Minor
     5. USSR
     6. Yugoslavia
     7. Japan
     8. Korea
     9. Bulgaria

     If Afghanistan kept up with the one year reported it would be  
fourth.


     According to this report in 1931 the production was 2291 metric  
tonnes and that is without reporting. China, Afghanistan and French  
Indo-China.
     That year Iran produced 890 metric tonnes

     So, again just going back to the current usage and production  
numbers.
     There does seem to be a disconnect that would benefit the  
illegal drug trade.
     6:36 PM




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