http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/KB10Dg01.html
Feb 10, 2009 God, Kim Jong-il and his son By Sunny Lee TUMEN, China - For people in the Chinese city of Tumen, North Korea is an everyday topic. They even talk about it while going for a walk along the river - probably because they can actually see the isolated state just across the river. Mr Jin is one of them. "People here know [more about] what's going in North Korea than North Koreans in North Korea," he said. "They censor information there." Like many Chinese citizens in this border city, Jin is of Korean origin and speaks Korean. As he leaned his back against the fence on the river, he said: "I heard Kim Jong-il's third son was chosen as the next leader of North Korea. Many people here know of that." His wife, who stood next to him, nodded her head in agreement. North Korea's senior-level cadre was informed about the heir designation, according to him. "They are in preparation of officially announcing it. But it may take some time because they need to do some housekeeping." What Jin didn't share is where he heard such news. But, he said, "This city has a swarm of people who are interested in knowing that." He continued with an air of confidence in his voice: "When it comes to North Korea, China knows better than any other country in the world." Over the years, there has been a glut of speculation and news reports that the aging North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, sooner or later would nominate one of his sons as heir designate. He is 66 and reportedly suffered a stroke last August. The heir selection prediction started with the eldest son, Jong-nam. But he allegedly blew his suzerain chance with the famous Tokyo Disneyland debacle in 2001, when he was allegedly arrested for travelling on a false Dominican passport, intending to visit the theme park. Until last year, the focus was on the second son, Jong-chol. Most experts believed a collective leadership would emerge, with Jong-chol acting as a figurehead and his uncle, Jang Song-taek, to be his mentor and adviser. Then, most recently, the third son, Jong-un, emerged as the new heir-apparent, as South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported on January 15. After so much hearsay and speculation over the years, many analysts, including Cheong Seong-chang, a Seoul-based expert on North Korea, have remained prudent on the report. Nonetheless, Cheong said, if a decision for the heir is to be made, Jong-un would stand a better chance over his two older brothers. "There is good possibility for Jong-un to become the heir," said Cheong, who heads the Inter-Korean Relations Studies Program at the Sejong Institute. "I hear that people have been lining up around Jong-un - especially since 2000. Jong-un has been widening his sphere of influence and he displays a knack for leadership." Cheong explained how Jong-un's leadership style differs from that of Jong-nam. "Let's use the example of a basketball game. Let's say the game was just over. Jong-nam will tell the players, 'Good job!' That's it. On the other hand, Jong-un will approach one of the players and ask him why he had passed the ball in such a way at a certain time of the game. Jong-un pays attention to details." The Yonhap report said that after Kim Jong-il tapped Jong-un to be his successor, he sent his nomination to the leadership of the ruling party around January 8. But it failed to explain whether the particular date carries any significance. "It was Jong-un's birthday. In the monarchal North Korea, the most important national holiday is none other than the monarch's birthday. Kim Jong-il's ascendance was also made just three days before his birthday," Cheong said. However, Jong-un is too young - only 26 years old - to rule a country. He has never had any official post in the North Korean bureaucratic apparatus to learn the loop either. This is in great contrast to Kim Jong-il, who was groomed for 20 years, taking various posts within the government before he was finally put in place to command the country. >From Cheong's perspective, such views reveal the typical outsider's >perspective of - as well limitations to understanding - North Korea. "When >Jong-un's father Kim Jong-il purged his political rivals, he was only 25. >That's certainly too young an age to carry out such a task, if we look at it >from the outside world's view. But we need to consider that Jong-il grew up >with a special privilege like a prince," Cheong said, and cautioned against >using any outside normative gauge to assess North Korea. The former North Korean Workers' Party secretary Hwang Jang-yup, the highest North Korean official ever to defect to the South, once said that Kim Jong-il was very precocious and "unbelievably political" even at young age. When the young Jong-il visited Moscow, for example, he ordered the senior North Korean officials around, Hwang recalled. "People already saw leadership potential in Kim Jong-il, saying he would definitely amount to be a great [leader]. Jong-un is the same. He is young, but that shouldn't automatically dismiss him or be grounds for underestimating him. Like his father, Jong-un displays a very political adroitness," Cheong said. As for Jong-un's lack of exposure to real politics, Cheong pointed out that it was Jong-un (and his immediate older brother Jong-chol) who usually accompanied Kim Jong-il on his numerous inspection visits to various military units. "What else can be a better hands-on political leadership class than that?" Cheong also dismisses the many analysts who increasingly point out the possibility of a power struggle surrounding the heir designation. Cheong believes the handover will be smooth once Kim Jong-il makes it official. "In North Korea, Kim Jong-il's word is the law. The handover will proceed without a glitch. If there is any crisis, it then comes after the handover of the power, not before. It particularly depends on how the new ruler manages the country." Cheong said the view that turmoil or a military coup could happen in North Korea is fundamentally flawed. "Arguing for the possibility of such an extreme scenario [is like] missing the yolk in an egg - the key component." According to Cheong, there are three components to consider when analyzing North Korea. First, what happens to the power structure when Kim Jong-il disappears from the picture. Second, the cohesiveness of the ruling elites. Third, people's attitude toward the political system. "If we consider all these three factors, and know how North Korea is run, a sudden collapse by internal turmoil is not likely," he said. Chu Shulong, an American-educated political scientist at Tsinghua University in Beijing, agrees. "North Korea is like China. Whether you like it or not, it has been stable for a long time. I don't see any sign of collapse. The system is still there." So, all in all, Jong-un may stand a better chance over his two other brothers of becoming an eventual successor to Kim Jong-il. Choosing Jong-un reflects the interests of North Korea. But in terms of the global community, which son will be a better choice? This was the topic of discussion among a group of journalists in Beijing recently. When the eldest son, Kim Jong-nam, showed up in Beijing on January 27, a raft of journalists followed him to his hotel downtown, some even staying overnight in the lobby just to keep an eye on this important media figure. In the wee hours, some journalists there, mostly South Korean and Japanese, engaged in an informal discussion about the heir designation. First of all, they excluded the possibility of Jong-nam as the heir designate. If he were really chosen as his father's successor, the theory went, he wouldn't have showed up alone in a foreign country without a bodyguard. On the other hand, they thought that in terms of personal quality, Jong-nam would be a better choice for the world. "He is the most internationalized among Kim Jong-il's sons. Jong-nam was educated abroad and he travelled extensively. He speaks fluent English and French. He will be more reform-minded when he becomes the leader. For that matter, he may be less keen on building his personality cult and nicer to his people as well. On the other hand, this very liberal tendency can be a threat to the North Korean ruling structure," said a journalist who was present there. As of today, numerous news reports and commentary based on the heir appointment continue to emerge, citing experts on the matter. If the heir selection is still confusing, we may get solace from the fact that even God's prophet was confused. In fact, in the Old Testament of the Bible, there is a similar and equally puzzling heir selection story about how God chose a successor to King Saul. God delegated the task to the prophet Samuel, telling him that the new king would be found among the sons of a man named Jesse. So, Jesse brought his sons and made them pass before Samuel one by one. When Samuel saw the tall Eliab, the oldest son, he thought: "Surely this must be the one." But God warned Samuel, "Do not look at his appearance or at the height of his stature, because I have refused him." God continued: "I do not see as man sees; for man looks at the outward appearance, but I look at the heart." Then, Jesse called another son, Abinadab, and made him pass before Samuel. He was not the chosen one either. Then Jesse made son Shammah pass by. He wasn't the one either. Jesse made seven of his sons pass before Samuel. All of them were rejected. And Samuel said to Jesse, "Are all the young men here?" Jesse said, "There remains yet the youngest, keeping the sheep in the field." And Samuel said to Jesse, "Bring him here." Jesse hadn't summoned the youngest because he didn't think the youngest was "king material". But he was wrong. When the youngest was brought in front of Samuel, God told the prophet: "Anoint him; for this is the one!" That was how King David was chosen. In North Korea, Kim Jong-il is a god. Kim has three sons. Numerous prophets outside North Korea have looked to their oracle bones, giving their human inclination of who would be the next leader of the kingdom. Each of the three sons has been seen as the heir, at least once. Maybe it will be one of the three sons. Maybe, it will be a surprise. God hasn't spoken yet. Sunny Lee is a Seoul-born writer and journalist. He is a graduate of Harvard University and Beijing Foreign Studies University. He can be reached at boston.su...@yahoo.com (Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing
