http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2009/967/re61.htm
8 - 14 October 2009
Issue No. 967
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875
Al-Bashir's last gamble
Sudan's beleaguered president must stare down both the international community
and his domestic foes in the coming election, reports Asmaa El-Husseini from
Khartoum
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Click to view caption
SHARING A LIGHT MOMENT: (l-r): Deputy leader of Sudan's Democratic
Unionist Party, Ali Mahmoud Hassanein, the leader of the Umma Party, former
prime minister Sadek Al-Mahdi, Southern Sudanese regional president Salva Kiir
and Islamist opposition figure Hassan Al-Turabi share a light moment after the
conclusion of a conference of opposition political parties in Juba, the capital
of semi-autonomous south Sudan
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
As expected, the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) has selected President
Omar Al-Bashir as its candidate for the presidential elections due in April
2010. Al-Bashir faces an arrest warrant issued in March 2009 by the
International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of war crimes and crimes against
humanity committed in Darfur. The Sudanese government has so far refused to
acknowledge the warrant.
Any hope that the NCP would ditch Al-Bashir for the sake of national unity is
now over. Since the warrant was issued, the incumbent president's party seems
to have rallied around him. Many NCP leaders see the warrant not just as a
personal and collective affront, but as a threat to their future. Al-Bashir has
been in power since he led a successful coup in 1989.
Before Al-Bashir was charged with war crimes, the same charges were levelled on
Ahmed Harun, the former governor of South Kordovan. The insistence with which
the international community seems intent on prosecuting top Sudanese officials
has brought the Sudanese political elite together. Even potential reformers are
keeping their views to themselves these days.
For a while, a compromise solution seemed possible. Sudanese officials spoke of
a deal by which Al-Bashir wouldn't run for president, in return for a stay of
the arrest warrant. According to Article 16 of the Rome Charter, which
established the ICC, arrest warrants can be postponed under certain
circumstances. As it turned out, the US, France, and Britain didn't like the
idea.
When the ICC ruling was issued, many expected the NCP to replace Al-Bashir, but
this wasn't to be. In fact, Al-Bashir used the ruling to consolidate his hold
on power. Recently, he removed some of his critics from power, including Salah
Kosh, the head of national security and intelligence.
The NCP's defiance may entice the international community to put more pressure
on Sudan. At present, the ICC prosecutor is contemplating another charge
against Al-Bashir, that of genocide. The ICC previously discarded this charge,
but things may change at any time. In order to secure a smooth transition in
the South following the upcoming referendum, the international community may
reduce its pressure on the Sudanese government, at least for a while.
Much depends on Al-Bashir's next move. He can play tough, or he can make
reconciliatory gestures towards his domestic critics. In his recent remarks,
both at an NCP meeting and a parliamentary session, he called on Sudanese
parties to cooperate more and renounce violence. He also promised to form a
human rights committee, provide a suitable climate for elections, safeguard the
peace agreement with the South, and help the southerners overcome tribal
violence. Al-Bashir also pledged to defuse the Darfur crisis.
His remarks reflect the critical situation in Sudan and the unspeakable
implications of the spiralling violence. In their recent Juba conference,
Sudanese opposition parties said they wanted a transparent dialogue, without
the government dictating the agenda or the participants. In a way, this gives
the NCP a chance to keep the country together.
One of the issues the NCP needs to discuss with other parties is the situation
in the South, now preparing for a self- determination referendum. With calls
for secession mounting in the south and the north, something needs to be done.
And as violence spreads in the South, many southerners blame the NCP for
triggering the fighting. Many fear that the battles may ignite further
hostilities in other parts of the country.
Something needs to be done about Darfur, about the economy, and about the
process of establishing democracy. In their recent meeting in Juba, Sudan's
opposition parties voiced many grievances about the upcoming referendum and the
laws that restrict political freedom. Unless the government does something
about these issues by 30 November, the opposition parties say they will boycott
the elections.
NCP leaders have exchanged harsh words with the opposition and the Sudan
People's Liberation Movement over the decisions of the Juba conference. For
now, the opposition parties want the government to apologise for its previous
mistakes in Darfur and the south. And they want the voting in the upcoming
referendum to be held by simple majority, or 50 per cent plus one, whereas the
NCP prefers a 75 per cent vote. Participants in the Juba conference oppose the
holding of elections before a peace deal is made in Darfur. But NCP officials
maintain that elections can be held prior to a peace deal, since the fighting
in the region is mostly over.
The NCP wants to use the elections to gain a new mandate in its dealings with
the international community. Still, it may consent to some of the opposition
demands. Should it do so, the opposition parties may field a common candidate
and try to defeat Al-Bashir. Or, the government may decide to ignore the Juba
resolutions altogether, calling the opposition's bluff. The manner of its
response may decide the future of the country.
<<_reg03.jpg>>
