Since we're just throwing out our thoughts here... I tend to disagree, following your logic, if the IP network becomes such a commodity, I think this would just create more jobs for people like us, I mean R/S guys. You seem to think that once the IP network is used for the services such as Voice, the Voice people will have taken the jobs. This may be so to some degree. But from the last few years of my experience, I doubt there will be a data network acting as reliably as PSTN any time soon - as you mention about broadband. For this reason, I think R/S folks with few extra skills will still be in demand for the telcos, someone has to keep on making this thing work, fixing, upgrading, estimating, reporting, understanding data networks, etc.
I agree that VOIP on the Net will not change how the telcos work. It's one thing to have a customer use the Internet for placing calls, the customer's expectations are already set low, knowing the Quality will not be as great. But when you pick up the receiver at home, you expect current quality, no delays, no noise, no whatever. Internet is simply too unpredictable for Carrier class Voice. ""nrf"" wrote in message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > ""The Long and Winding Road"" wrote in > message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > > right up NRF's alley. Certainly for those considering their futures, > > something worth considering as part of the mix. > > > > http://cookreport.com/11.10.shtml > > > > Can't afford the un-snipped version right now, but since I work for a > telco, > > and I recognize the issues described, and have read all the top corporate > > executive e-mails that are doled out to us worker bees, I enjoyed the > > counter arguments presented here. > > There are two parts to this report that I think bear mentioning. One is the > future of VoIP. The other is the value (or lack thereof) of present > broadband rollouts. > > VoIP is certainly transforming the way that the PSTN will operate, if slowly > (very very slowly). Note, I didn't say voice over the Internet, but rather > voice over IP. I believe, for numerous reasons, telcos will choose not to > merge their phone services to the Internet, but will rather build out an IP > network through which they will deliver services. Stick a telephony feature > server on top of a functioning IP network (again, not the Internet, but a > private IP network), and you now have a phone system. > > But that further speaks to the commoditization of IP skills in general and > R/S skills specifically. IP networks will simply become a utility, like > electric power. How many electric power engineers does a typical company > have? Unless you're the electric company, probably zero - electricity is > just something that reliably comes out of the wall socket and you use it to > plug in your refrigerator. The value-add (ergo the jobs) will go to the > people who understand the services that can be layered on top. That's not > to say that there will be no jobs for people who know R/S (and only R/S), > only that there will be less of them and they will be less pay for them. I > do not see a bright future for R/S skills as the IP network becomes more and > more commoditized. > > About broadband - it is absolutely true that the telcos have basically > provided something that consumers do not want. Yet I disagree with the idea > that the telcos simply need to provide a more symmetric offering to entice > consumers. In my experience, consumers do not want broadband regardless of > whether it is assymetric or symmetric or whatever. The 2 problems with > broadband? Price and reliability. Let's face it, dial is reliable, whereas > broadband can and does goes down for weeks at a time (happened to me a bunch > of times). Furthermore, the Hart/Winston study showed that most people > think that $40-50 a month is too much money to pay. No wonder that despite > the fact that broadband is now available at over 80% of households, the > take rate for broadband is less than 15% where it is available. > > Here is the Hart/Winston study. Yes, it's a year old, but not a whole lot > has changed in a year. The most damning quote: "Forty-eight percent have > no interest regardless of price and another 21 percent are willing to pay at > most $20 per month..." > > http://www.comptel.org/press/nov29_2001_voices.html > > The biggest problem with broadband? Simple. There is no mass-market app > that actually requires broadband. Most people are perfectly happy with > dial. After all, what do they do on the Internet - surf a few pages, send a > few emails, do some instant messaging - all low-impact apps. Most regular > people (who are mostly nontechnical) simply don't see why they should pay > more and put up with a less reliable technology in order to do the things > they do a little faster. And again, it's not because they don't know what > it means to have a fast connection. A lot of these people work in offices > that have good connections, and yet they still don't want it for themselves. > Essentially all of the technical people (the geeks) who want broadband have > already gotten it, the trick now is to somehow convince all the nontechnical > people that broadband is worth it. I hope somebody will finally invent > something that will actually convince the masses that broadband is good, for > otherwise the telco depression will go on and on. > > > > > > > -- > > TANSTAAFL > > "there ain't no such thing as a free lunch" Message Posted at: http://www.groupstudy.com/form/read.php?f=7&i=59261&t=59261 -------------------------------------------------- FAQ, list archives, and subscription info: http://www.groupstudy.com/list/cisco.html Report misconduct and Nondisclosure violations to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
