""dre"" wrote in message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > ""nrf"" wrote in message ... > > The biggest problem with broadband? Simple. There is no mass-market > > app that actually requires broadband. Most people are perfectly > > happy with dial. After all, what do they do on the Internet - > > surf a few pages, send a few emails, do some instant messaging - > > all low-impact apps. Most regular people (who are mostly > > nontechnical) simply don't see why they should pay more and put > > up with a less reliable technology in order to do the things they > > do a little faster. And again, it's not because they don't know > > what it means to have a fast connection. A lot of these people > > work in offices that have good connections, and yet they still > > don't want it for themselves. Essentially all of the technical > > people (the geeks) who want broadband have already gotten it, the > > trick now is to somehow convince all the nontechnical people that > > broadband is worth it. I hope somebody will finally invent something > > that will actually convince the masses that broadband is good, for > > otherwise the telco depression will go on and on. > > Wow nrf, you were totally dead-on correct until the last paragraph. > Need for R/S skills is gone, and basically is not coming back - that's a > fact. > > However, broadband is going to continue to have strange offerings > with different apps all the time. Sure, most poeple only use email, > surfing, and maybe IM today (for which dial works fine). But you > are seemingly waiting for something to be invented. It's already > invented. SIP, IM, Presence - these things exist today (and yes, > I'm aware that maybe it's best if they don't work over the Internet > and instead on private IP networks). But why can't more and more > broadband connections actually be private IP networks (as well as > maybe Internet access)? Why aren't people utilizing MPEG-4 in the > way that some (college students at least) are using MP3? I don't > own cable, but I can easily download all the episodes of Soprano > to my home computer over my broadband connection. Why do I need > cable or satellite now? Do I need a VCR, PVR, DVR, DVD, etc? Do > I need a receiver? Do I even need a television? Do I even need a > telephone? > > This isn't your standard plumbing. You don't load new bits into > the bottom of your sink and instantly upgrade your plumbing to > faster, more converged services. It doesn't work like that. > Broadband does. > > So you keep waiting for things that are already invented (SIP, > MPEG-4, 3G, Bluetooth, IEEE 1394, P2P, etc) to catch on. The rest > of us will be paying less money and simplifying our lives. The > trick isn't to invent a new technology, but it's to get the average > person to be able to embrace the technology that's already out > there.
I am hardly waiting for somebody to invent something. I am well aware that there are many cool and killer things out there that are served very well by broadband. But you hit it right on the head - it's all about getting people to embrace that technology, which is by no means inevitable. The road to technology nirvana is littered with cast-off inventions that were technically wonderful but for some reason never garnered a mass audience. There is certainly nothing inevitable about the masses adopting some new technology no matter how cool it is. And even if it is ultimately adopted, another relevant question is whether it will be adopted quickly enough to justify the capital investments that were made? Because if not, then the telco depression is going to linger for even longer than it already will. Telcos don't just build out broadband infrastructure just 'for fun', they do it because they are banking their business on garnering a rate of return in a reasonable amount of time. When the payoff period gets pushed further and further out, then that makes the original investment less and less appealing. At some point (which I think we have reached and probably surpassed), the investment is unprofitable. Broadband penetration is nowhere near the levels needed to make it profitable. This not only damages existing telcos/MSO's even further than they are already, this discourages further investment into broadband. I know if I was a telco exec I would be leery about investing in broadband, simply because I see all my competitors going to the broadband poorhouse and I don't want that to happen to me. It all comes down to money. Businesses invest in things that make money and disinvest in things that lose money. Until somebody can actually come up with a broadband business model that actually works, broadband will be a white elephant. Message Posted at: http://www.groupstudy.com/form/read.php?f=7&i=59275&t=59275 -------------------------------------------------- FAQ, list archives, and subscription info: http://www.groupstudy.com/list/cisco.html Report misconduct and Nondisclosure violations to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
