""Aaron Ajello"" wrote in message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > IMHO, comparing COBOL and mainframes to networking as a valuable, marketable > skill set doesn't follow. COBOL was replaced by VB, C++, ASP and other > languages. Mainframes were replaced by things like Windows, UNIX and > Linux. I don't know of something that will replace networking. I'm not > saying it's impossible, but the comparison doesn't seem right. Cisco could > get replaced, but how is networking going to be replaced? Even if > everything goes wireless, it's still all networked, no?
Networking will be 'replaced' in the sense that it will fade into the background. Eventually, networking will be just as reliable as, say, electric power in your building. It will be just another utility. But when that happens, you really don't need engineers very much. You just plug something into a wall socket and it works. OK, if you wanna rewire a building or something, yeah you gotta call an electrician. But how many times does that happen? > > Several people have said R/S isn't such a valuable skill set anymore because > people aren't building networks anymore. Maybe that's true, but it reminds > me of what someone said when the machine gun was invented. He said it was > so powerful and destructive that it would bring an end to war. also, didn't > bill gates say one time that no one would ever need a hard drive bigger than > 16meg, or something like that? I don't follow. If people aren't building networks anymore (and they are not for the total number of networks is actually decreasing now, mostly due to bankrupt providers getting liquidated), then that necessarily means less demand for network people. And even if the number of networks remained the same, that still implies less demand compared to a few years ago when networks were being built out. Let's face it. You need more people and more expertise to build a network than to maintain it. That's not to say that you don't need any expertise to maintain a network, because you obviously do, but you need less of it. And again, I would point to the fact that the many, dare I say the majority of predictions, actually turn true. Would you tell your kid today to pursue a career in, say, steel? I didn't think so. But, hey, you could use the same arguments to say that nobody can predict the future with certainty, therefore steel might be a great career, etc. etc. And indeed it might be a great career. But, really now, what are the odds? > > It seems like every time I pick up a tech magazine it's talking about ip > telephony, internet connected toasters, high speed web enabled cell phones, > etc. yeah, yeah, yeah, I know what someone is going to say- "the > infrastructure is already in place to connect your toaster to the > internet." But won't more and more internet connected devices necessitate > more people who know how to connect those things and make them work together > quickly, reliably and smoothly? Not necessarily - not if everything is truly plug+play and reliable. Ease of use and reliability implies less need for expertise. Let's be perfectly honest. The fact that IP networks are still somewhat difficult to configure and also somewhat unreliable is actually kind of a good thing, because it means that companies need to keep network guys around. While we may say that we want a super-reliable and easy to use network, the fact is, we don't really want that. For example, consider this. The latest IT boom implied a massive increase in the use of electricity. But did that imply a giant boom for electricians? Hardly. The reason is simple. Electricity is, for the most part, plug and play, and reliable. You take all your new-fangled systems, plug them into the wall, and they work. OK, true, there was some increase in demand for electricians, especially for datacenters and whatnot, but the increase was mild. Now, don't get me wrong, I'm certainly not trying to bag on electricians. I have several friends who are electricians, and I respect their profession and their skill. I'm just using them as an example of the way I think things are eventually going to go in networking. There will still be jobs, but not as many as there are today, and the jobs that will be out there will be for higher-end people, with limited for the novices. Just like the way electricians are today. > > I think at this point in the evolution of info systems, the internet and > networking it's premature to say anything has reached it's peak and is > mature. Think of all the homes out there not connected to the internet. > Think of all the companies out there still not using networks and info > systems. Message Posted at: http://www.groupstudy.com/form/read.php?f=7&i=59460&t=59390 -------------------------------------------------- FAQ, list archives, and subscription info: http://www.groupstudy.com/list/cisco.html Report misconduct and Nondisclosure violations to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
