A followup to my previous comments. Ted states that October in Peru is
spring. This is not necessarily the case. Breeding in Peru occurs
throughout the year depending on elevation and the rainy season. In
tropical locations near the equator, there are generally two rainy
seasons and two dry seasons. They are not uniform and vary depending
on whether you are on the east slope or the west slope of the Andes.
Ted also stated that the bird singing in Georgetown now coincides with
spring/summer breeding period. Now somehow this bird singing in May is
spring/summer but October is also ok. Does this mean that a wild bird
has completely changed its singing period by 6 months or so. I can't
sort this out.  I should have mentioned that I have also had singing
Rufous-collared sparrow singing in Costa RIca in April and in Ecuador
in March. With Ecuador and Peru being neighbors this provides an
opposite time of year for it in the near equator region.

There are great examples of this type of breeding variability in the
US. Great Horned Owls breed early in the year. White-winged Crossbills
can breed any time of the year. Costa's Hummingbirds nest in our
southern border area in February and several other hummers nest after
the summer rains.

Regarding null hypothesis. In the scientific community, hypotheses are
not considered true until proven with experiments and observations
that can be repeated independently. I think this matches proving an
unlikely record to be wild must be where the burden of proof lies.

My previous comment > I feel the null hypothesis should be escapee or
release unless
 there is solid evidence to the contrary. > was not interpreted
correctly. I am saying that the null hypothesis should be released or
escaped, not wild. Then the evidence should prove that it is wild or
likely to be wild. I strongly believe that the actual analysis of the
thick-billed parrot is it was assumed to be an escape and evidence was
compiled to back this assumption and no evidence was developed to
prove it was wild. This is the diffilculty with provenance in that no
evidence can be developed in support of wild origin other than a
pattern of vagrancy. The bird can not be questioned about its origin.
A bird that has gone through molts can remove evidence of cage wear.

The null hypothesis for plate tectonics is that it did not occur until
evidence was developed to the contrary.

I have not yet reached my own decision on whether it is wild or not
and opinion is not how it should be made. I am unable to reach an
informed decision as there is much information that needs to be
developed before the CBRC can start its deliberations. I will be very
interested to read the report on this interesting sighting.

Norm Erthal
Arvada, CO





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