COBirders,
I want to start by *thanking* everyone for the motivation to keep these
going.  The *positive feedback has been astounding and I appreciate it
greatly*.  I also want to thank those of you who have been reporting the
common birds and first of season birds.  They are the easier birds to find
and help us gain a better understanding of the impacts of the weather on
migrants.  The day-to-day movement of birds (not just rarities) is great
data to play with.  Patrick's report of Chipping Sparrows in his urban
Denver yard is a great little bit of excitement for him, and also a really
nice example of the forecasts working out.  Glad to also see the excitement
of getting a new yard bird in COVID times.  Good for you Patrick!

*Back to the weather: *We are in a pattern in the low-level and mid-level
winds where we should expect migrants to stay put at good food sources for
the next few days until Sunday (a ways off, so that forecast could
change).  Think like Dave Leatherman to find the good bird spots.  Find the
food, find the birds.

Winds are either out of the north or northwest holding off the northward
progress of migrants.  To be more birder-positive about it, the next few
days should hold the same birds you have been seeing, or if you need to go
slightly farther afield to get those other local birds, you have some
opportunity.  Thinking about Yellow-throated Vireos.

On Sunday, expect conditions to look a lot like what we saw on Tuesday
(this is a farther out forecast, so take it with more grains of salt).
Winds all day long passing straight through Colorado with no solid stopping
point.  Expect migrant turnover for most of that day.

9am Sunday winds (example of what to expect; green circle is Boulder [for
reference]):
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/26/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105,40,1739/loc=-105.000,40.000


Note the southerly winds are better later in the day in eastern Colorado
for migrants, but still just pass-through.  Expect turnover to be high.
Maybe that means come back to the same spot a few times on that day if you
are passing by again.  On Tuesday of this week, at Lagerman Reservoir
outside of Longmont, there were Long-billed Curlews, then not, then
Dunlins, then not, and multiple varying sandpiper species throughout the
day.  This is part of what I mean by migrant turnover.

If you have any questions, let me know.  I am happy to answer them.

May the birds you want to see stick around for a while.  Get out there and
prove me right or wrong.  More data is better.  Thanks again for the
supportive emails.

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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