COBirders,
There is a cold front coming through tomorrow.  I think if you were to ask
COBirders whether a cold front meant good birds in Fall or not, I think
most would say yes, especially if the front comes with precipitation.  Go
birding in bad weather!

On the East slope, tomorrow's cold front won't be wet nor cold, just cooler
with some cloud cover.  On the West slope, it will be a different story in
terms of precipitation.  Definitely expecting precipitation.  Hopefully
this will help with some of the wildfire situations.

So today, I am going to try something different.  Here is the forecast
graphic for tomorrow after the frontal passage (map is from 3pm local
time).  If you were at my CFO presentation the other day, you would know
some of the things to look for in terms of good weather for migrants.  Does
this look like it will be a good day to get long-distance migrants from
Canada?  Should we expect dispersing migrants affected by Hurricane Delta?
Should we be thinking about tropical species coming up from Mexico and the
southwest US?  Where do you see the flow pattern coming from that would
dictate the birds we might expect?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/10/11/2100Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-105.11,40.20,1064/loc=-105,40

The green circle on that map is around Boulder, CO.  Anyone want to play
along and give your weather forecast for migrants based on this map?  Are
you expecting turnover of birds?  Are you expecting most birds to stay put,
but add other species to the mix with the frontal passage?  Is this going
to be the pattern that drives even more corvids out onto the Plains?

Harder challenge: anyone want to venture a guess about what birds to expect
based on the flow pattern?

All of the previous questions will be answered by the weather and the birds
tomorrow into Monday, but I will wrap up some thoughts later this evening
based on what folks have stated to me privately (paraphrased or summarized
only) and publicly, plus some of my own words to help move the conversation
along.

Thanks for playing along,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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