Nick,
I cannot be certain about this bird because it is a mixture of a soaring
bird and a direct flight bird.  Like you are saying Nick, it is likely that
it will be headed NNE on the current winds.  If it is flying in a direct
flight all night, it could easily end up at Lake Superior.  If instead it
is choosing to navigate in soaring flight, we would have a very different
story.  Also, because this bird is so far afield from where it should be
and it doesn't make meteorological sense why this bird would be here, I am
not confident in saying what this bird is going to do.  I appreciate the
challenge, and it is tough to even communicate this appropriately because
of all the uncertainty that surrounds this bird.

Thanks for pushing me though.  I like the way you are thinking about this.

Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Thu, Nov 5, 2020 at 9:09 PM Nicholas Komar <quetza...@comcast.net> wrote:

> Bryan Guarente, can you predict where the Frigatebird will be by morning?
> Looks like upper level winds are headed north by northeast, so I’m guessing
> Lake McConnaghy or further north. I’ll be checking Boyd Lake and Horsetooth
> Reservoir first thing here in Larimer.
>
> Nick Komar
> Fort Collins CO
>
> On Nov 5, 2020, at 8:36 PM, Brandon <flammow...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> 
> Yes, the photos are good for a female Magnificent Frigatebird.  9:30am was
> when the first photos were taken. Congrats to the 5 birders who got to see
> it, I know 4 of them and saw them today, and they were all very excited.
>
> Brandon Percival
> Pueblo West, CO
>
> On Thu, Nov 5, 2020, 8:29 PM Sebastian Patti <sebastianpa...@hotmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Magnificent???
>>
>> There is a SPECIMEN of Great Frigatebird from Oklahoma . . .
>>
>> sebastianpa...@hotmail.com
>> Sebastian T. Patti
>> 770 S. Grand Avenue
>> Unit 3088
>> Los Angeles, CA 90017
>> CELL: 773/304-7488
>>
>> ------------------------------
>> *From:* cobirds@googlegroups.com <cobirds@googlegroups.com> on behalf of
>> Brandon <flammow...@gmail.com>
>> *Sent:* Thursday, November 5, 2020 8:23 PM
>> *Cc:* Colorado Birds <cobirds@googlegroups.com>
>> *Subject:* Re: [cobirds] Frigatebird at John Martin
>>
>> The bird was last seen at 2:35pm, by 4 birders at John Martin Reservoir.
>> It was flying high, and possibly to the west.  Many birders arrived around
>> 3pm and after, and watched until dark.  Maybe it will be 100 miles west of
>> John Martin Reservoir tomorrow morning, I know a reservoir that will be
>> checked.
>>
>> Brandon Percival
>> Pueblo West, CO
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Nov 5, 2020 at 12:29 PM willc...@gmail.com <willcbi...@gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Hi All,
>>
>> I don't want to step on the observers toes, but there was a Magnificent
>> Frigatebird photographed at john martin reservoir today, apparently over
>> the dam. Hopefully some people can make it there and see it before sunset!
>>
>> Will Anderson
>> Boulder
>>
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