Steve, You are assuming that neo customers follow a 1st order model. 2nd order would be +10x -5x +3x -1 sinc function.
On Tue, 2008-06-03 at 10:34 -0700, steve wrote: > well I am a big fan of the wisdom of crowds. > > > > I am a big fan of the army of davids > > > > That said, I also understand the limitations of these methods. > > > > My method is brutally numeric. this is my training. You begin with a > demand forecast. Lets say “X per week.” > > > > actually, it’s more sophisticated than that since products go through > an initial SURGE and then they settle into > > a regular run rate. For example. at launch you might see 10X units > per week for 1-3 weeks, and then it would > > taper off to 5X, 3X, 1X. Engineers here will recognize this response > function. response to a impulse. > > > > basically I track the data on weekly basis and use that to guess the > entire demand curve. more data equals better estimate. > > > > When a product hits the run rate ( linear) part of the demand curve, > then a monkey can do the math. hey boss I sold 1 million > > last month. I bet I’ll sell a million next month!” thanks monkey. > here’s a banana. > > > > The big risk is the guessing the intitial impulse. make sense? > > > > The other thing that everybody misses is the markets they don’t know > about. > > > > I have a forecast for Linux Mobile developers. Call that number X. > > > > Then I get a call from University XYZ. they want Neo. > > Then I get a call from medical company PDQ. they want Neos. > > > > and the list goes on. adjust demand curves. > > > > > > So the crowd guessed 4000 GTA01? for linux developers only? > > > > > > pretty damn close. But supply constraints biased the result. > > > > > > > > > > > ______________________________________________________________________ > From:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of JW > Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 6:24 PM > To: community@lists.openmoko.org > Subject: Wisdom of crowds - the update > > > > > hi steve & community > > once upon a time a long, long time ago tim kersten set up a site to > track "the wisdom of crowds" [1] with regard to the question "how many > freerunners will FIC sell in the first two months" > > the answer can be seen here (click the stats tab) > http://openmoko.hobby-site.com/ and is remarkably consistent at a > median value of 4000 after over 1000 people voted. In fact this > number has stayed very close to 4000 since the low hundreds of votes. > > so are you going to ask the webshop/pulster/trisoft/whoever to keep > track of the real number for you? .....after all, if it turns out to > be accurate you can use this method for planning your next product! > > and are you going to tell us how accurate it was :-) ? > > actually the rules for the "wisdom of a crowd" to be accurate demand > that each guess is independent..... and here we have a little > pollution in that it is possible for you to see others votes before > you vote yourself (although many will not have bothered) > > anyway.... it gave us something to do while you folks were busy making > phones.... > > i reckon it saved at least 12 useless messages to list by frustrated > geeks...... (and oops created only 9 more....) > > actually next time we could always use it to guess the release date > for son of freerunner .... > > jw > > [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds > > > _______________________________________________ > Openmoko community mailing list > community@lists.openmoko.org > http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community _______________________________________________ Openmoko community mailing list community@lists.openmoko.org http://lists.openmoko.org/mailman/listinfo/community