Some factors could be already gained on existing hardware. E.g. Suzie has
currently no parallel search. Even permanent brain (thinking in the
opponents time) is not implemented.
Suzies evaluation has also a local tactical search. Things are exponential,
but the exponential factor is not so terrible. Modern Alpha-Beta is not
brute-force anymore but rather selective.
Additionally so far the effort has been devoted to improve knowledge. Global
chess like search is still in its infancy. In case of UCT there was an real
explosion in the last time. Its - like in chess - a combination of stronger
hardware and better methods. I think in 20 years the programms will even on
19x19 knock on the professional-Dans doors. Similar to the situation in
chess end of the 1980ths when the first GMs were beaten, but the programms
were not yet on GM level. Or in other words, Go is now about in 1970.
Chrilly
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Cooper" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "computer-go" <computer-go@computer-go.org>
Sent: Friday, April 06, 2007 2:43 PM
Subject: Re: [computer-go] The dominance of search (Suzie v. GnuGo)
My guess is that the complexity of achieving a fixed standard of play (eg
1 dan) using a global alpha-beta or MC search is an exponential function
of the board size. For this guess, I exclude algorithms that have a
tactical or local component. If this guess is correct then, even if
Moore's law remains in force, this kind of program should not reach dan
level on a 19x19 board within 20 years.
To some extent, this is testable today by finding how a global search
program's strength scales with board size and with thinking time. For
example, results in which Suzie had a week to play a 13x13 game would be
interesting.
I don't mean to imply by this message that I think I am particularly well
qualified to have an opinion on this matter, but when someone writes
something that surprises me, I'm inclined to argue :)
On 13x13 and especially 19x19 Suzie is still weaker than Gnu-Go. I think
the hardware is still too weak to establish the same dominance of search
for larger board-sizes. But thats only a matter of time or of a few
million $ to build (with Chris Fant) a Go-Chip. Actually about 100.000
Euro for an FPGA based project would be sufficient.
Chrilly Donninger
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