Hi Don,

2008/2/21, Don Dailey <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
>
>  If you look at the table you will notice that going from level 4 to level
> 11 (which is 7 doublings  and should take 128X longer)  only takes 59.43 X
> longer.

> Mogo's "stop early" heuristic works better at longer levels.

That is actually very interesting, and may be a new hypothesis for the
scalability limits we saw in 9x9. There are two kind of "stop early
heuristics"
- a safe one, in the following case: if we began to always simulate
the second best move, it would not have more simulations that the
first best move at the end of the time limit. As the chosen move is
the one with the maximum number of simulations, there is no point to
continue thinking.
- a risky one, in the following case: if the first best move have more
than x% of all simulations, and the ratio first best move/second best
move (in number of simulations) is more than y, and the total number
of simulations is greater than expected total of simulations / 2, then
we stop.
There is also a "hard" stop early in the following case: if the first
best move have more than 1-(1-x%)/2 of all simulations, and the ratio
first best move/second best move (in number of simulations) is more
than 2 * y, and the total number of simulations is greater than
expected total of simulations / 4, then we stop

Maybe x and y are not adapted to long thinking time (stop too early in
a loosing move).
Or maybe they are, and it worth saving time :).

Anyway, it is normal that we longer thinking time, even the first
heuristic arrives much more often.

Sylvain
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