Given the minimal sample size, bothering over this question won't amount to much. I think the proper response is that no one thought we'd see this level of play at this point in our AI efforts and point to the fact that we witnessed hundreds of moves vetted by 9dan players, especially Michael Redmond's, where each move was vetted. In other words "was the level of play very high?" versus the question "have we beat all humans". The answer is more or less, yes.
On Tuesday, March 22, 2016, Lucas, Simon M <s...@essex.ac.uk> wrote: > Hi all, > > I was discussing the results with a colleague outside > of the Game AI area the other day when he raised > the question (which applies to nearly all sporting events, > given the small sample size involved) > of statistical significance - suggesting that on another week > the result might have been 4-1 to Lee Sedol. > > I pointed out that in games of skill there's much more to judge than just > the final > outcome of each game, but wondered if anyone had any better (or worse :) > arguments - or had even engaged in the same type of > conversation. > > With AlphaGo winning 4 games to 1, from a simplistic > stats point of view (with the prior assumption of a fair > coin toss) you'd not be able to claim much statistical > significance, yet most (me included) believe that > AlphaGo is a genuinely better Go player than Lee Sedol. > > From a stats viewpoint you can use this approach: > http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/itprnn/book.pdf > (see section 3.2 on page 51) > > but given even priors it won't tell you much. > > Anyone know any good references for refuting this > type of argument - the fact is of course that a game of Go > is nothing like a coin toss. Games of skill tend to base their > outcomes on the result of many (in the case of Go many hundreds of) > individual actions. > > Best wishes, > > Simon > > > _______________________________________________ > Computer-go mailing list > Computer-go@computer-go.org <javascript:;> > http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go
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