> In your survey, the spread for a super-human program, from those that
> correctly predicted 2010 for shodan,
> is from 2023 to 2150.
> So even between the best predictors sofar, there was huge disagreement
> when it comes topling humanity ...
> I guess current knowledge of the effectiveness and scalability of MCTS
> would narrow the spread, but how much?

This was the other poll I set up; with the recent attention the number
of votes jumped a lot, and (surprisingly to me) the most popular choice
is now 2015 to 2020:
  http://polldaddy.com/poll/1614045/?view=results

Darren
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