We are actually very, very close to eliminating the individually-operated automobile. The GPS stuff works and is rapidly improving. (So glad that MS does not make a GPS!) Collision avoidance still has a way to go. Today we do use cruise control with no collision avoidance. (Is that a good idea?) We may be even closer to eliminating automobiles than we are to eliminating fossil-fueled vehicles.
Pipe dreams. Robots can barely walk after years of programming [Sony Qrio was programmed to dance, step by step, but walked like Groucho Marx]. Puppies can play soccer better than robots. Few of the AIM bots seem close to human--and they don't drive. The ALVs envisioned by DARPA in the 80s have been spectacularly unsuccessful up to now. The programming required for these kinds of vehicles to move in traffic is significantly more complicated than the Grand Challenge course in the Mojave desert. Following a course is nothing like making split-second decisions in traffic.
Some cities are already coming close to eliminating automobiles in favor of public transportation, bicycles, scooters and microcars [quadricycles]. Cars like Volvo have so-called crash avoidance systems, but they're still cars. Cruise control is more likely to cause a crash than avoid one. It's like having a haunted car with a ghost driver--very dangerous on long trips, especially if you're driving an boring car like a Lexuszzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Maybe more funding for science R&D, and challenging incentives, will improve the robot cars to compete with the energizer bunny soon. Can the cars play soccer? <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amG0J-6QSWU> Without drivers? Now that's more like city traffic! Let the robocars compete--whenever. I think I'll borrow my brother's unicycle.
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