Well, with the caveat that a Markov model is not really a good
description of the real world, then yes, macs look good for
increasing their market share. In the Markov two-state model,
if p and q are the respective probabilities of a mac->windows
switch and a windows->mac switch, then the system tends to
a steady state ratio q::p of macs to windows, so you'd only need
to have this ratio to be greater than the current proportion of
macs::windows to see macs increase share. In other words,
given the current windows dominance, mac users would have
to be MORE likely to switch than windows users by a pretty big
factor in order for mac share to stay where it is or decline.
Again, this is a fairly simplistic model and not necessarily a good
description of what happens in the real world. Let's wait for
Apple's financial report and see how mac sales compare to
windows pc sales over the same period to get an idea of
what is happening right now.
On Jul 19, 2009, at 10:51 PM, COMPUTERGUYS-L automatic digest system
wrote:
From: "t.piwowar" <t...@tjpa.com>
Subject: Re: Switching, and why
Do I get you right, you are saying that there is nowhere for Windows
to go but down?
On Jul 19, 2009, at 6:02 PM, David K Watson wrote:
Even so, it is fun to note (for the purposes of riling up some
people) that in the scenario where either switch was equally
likely, you'd approach a steady state in which there were equal
numbers of windows and mac users.
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