-Caveat Lector-
In a message dated 12/21/98 10:14:43 PM Eastern Standard Time,
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
>
> First, let me say that I do not dispute the results of these latest polls
> regarding Clinton. I do, however have questions regarding the general stock
> we Americans put in them:
>
> 1. At what time of day are these polls taken and what segment of the
> population is normally polled the most: those at home, work or school?
>
> a. What portion of the United States is represented with respect to these
> polls?
>
> b. Is there any particular geographical location within the United States
> that is polled more than others?
>
> 2. Do any of the above factors have any influence on the outcome of polls?
>
> 3. If so, can these factors be manipulated to prove the argument of one
> side or another on any particular issue?
>
> 4. Why, then, should Americans trust polls? I, for instance, could argue
> that most Americans were FOR the impeachment of Clinton on the basis of the
> results of regional polls taken by one of the local TV stations, which
> typically come out in favor of his impeachment by a margin of two to one
> (WXIA TV; Atlanta, GA as of 12-20-98).
>
> 5. If, as I contend, polls are intrinsically untrustworthy, why do we rely
> on them almost exclusively as a reflection of the true "pulse" of the
nation?
>
>
> Edward ><>
> [
The specific answers to your questions seem to be shrouded in secrecy.
Somebody would have to launch an investigation, maybe infiltrate the
pollsters. I remember being polled a few years ago, although I can't recall
the content. What I do recall is that I had to tell the pollster that I
couldn't answer the first couple of questions yes or no because of the wording
of his questions. In that situation the questions consisted of a statement
followed by a question. Since my answer would depend upon acceptance of the
premise of the statement I couldn't offer a legitimate answer. In that
instance the poll was aborted because I was uncooperative. I also seem to
recall, although I am not certain, that the call came in during the day. I
haven't been called since and don't personally know anyone else who ever has.
As to the demographics you mention, if you want to hire me to do a poll in my
home town, I can get you whatever result you desire..... 90% for or 90%
against. That's because I know my town. It's not unreasonable then to assume
that experts in demographics could get desired results in any town. For
example, it's my experience that in most cities you can rely on the majority
of the affluent to live in the NW and the "low wealth" (new PC term)
population to live near the center of town and in the SE. This demographic
information, if correct, would seem to be rather handy to pollsters. I also
understand that zip codes are easily interpreted to reveal demographics. The
whole point is that class distinctions based upon income levels are becoming
more and more distinct, and these distinctions can be associated with how well
informed individual class members are. As you suggest, it seems relatively
easy for pollsters to exploit these distinctions.
As to question #5, the fact is that poll results are self-perpetuating. It is
human nature to want to be part of the larger group (excepting of course
conspiracy theorists). It isn't that you and I rely on them as a reflection of
the pulse of the nation, it is more important that the "powers that be" rely
on them to influence the pulse of the nation.
It's interesting that when a "newstalk" radio station or an internet website
does a poll, you get results that conflict with those published by the
mainstream media. Hell, even AOL, whose subscribers aren't known for being the
shapest knives in the drawer, got a 58% result in favor of impeachment. But
all that this indicates is that internet users and listeners to talk radio
tend to be more thoughtful and better informed. What it does not indicate is
that this population is a majority. The bottom line answer to all of your
questions as well as many others is, "We are living in a decaying society."
Jim
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