Subj: Not One Y2K Compliant U.S. Utility, According to SEC Filings Date: 98-12-25 20:19:10 EST From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (John Hammell) To: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] IAHF LIST: Please forward this to more people in order to wake them up. Securities and Exchange Commission Filings can now be used to gauge y2k preparedness in power utilities and other publicly traded companies. Unless more of us prepare for whats coming, and help each other prepare, theres going to be a lot of dead and starving people in the not too distant future. I urge everyone to visit the Gary North website daily for updates of this kind. >From Gary North Website http://www.garynorth.com Category: Power_Grid Date: 1998-12-23 16:03:43 Subject: Not One Y2K Compliant U.S. Utility, According to SEC Filings Link: <http://www.euy2k.com/guest2.htm> Comment: Will the power grid go down? I know of no reliable evidence that says it won't. Not one U.S. power plant is compliant today. The odds are there will be a shutdown. This seems obvious. It is also systematically ignored by the media, programmers, and investors. This study surveys the officially filings of U.S. electrical power utilities. Almost half of those that filed neglected to say when they began their projects. Of those that did, most started in 1996 or later. What percentage of their y2k budgets has been spent? Most of those reporting said it was somewhere between 10% and 40%. This means that most of their projects lie ahead of them. There is no logical case for y2k optimism. There are no data to support such a case. The most optimistic accurate statement that a y2k optimist can present today is this: "No one knows what will happen in 2000." This is a thin thread on which to support an entire civilization. This is Part I of a report posted on the EUY2K site (Dec. 21). * * * * * * * * * * * Will the lights stay on? Anyone who is aware of the potential problems Y2K may bring eventually asks themselves that question. There are many other aspects in which year 2000 failures might affect individuals, but none which seems so vital as the generation of reliable electric power. ... This is why I have focused my attention on the status of the U.S. electric utility industry during my search for those elusive Year 2000 answers we’re all in pursuit of. I gave myself the task of reading, filing and correlating what I believe to be all the third quarter 1998 SEC 10Q filings of publicly held utilities, and have compiled a summary of their self-reported status in four pertinent areas. These areas are: Year 2000 Project Start Date Year 2000 Costs Incurred to Date as a Percentage of Estimated Total Costs Year 2000 IT and Non IT Percentage of Project Completion to Date/Estimated Final Completion Contingency Planning Estimated Completion Dates. ... With nearly half of investor-owned utilities declining to tell when they began their Year 2000 Project, it’s very difficult to get a handle on when the majority started their fixes. I surmise that those not reporting a start date would fall into a later start category than those who did, but this is again my personal skepticism showing. However, of those utilities which did report a start date, the bulk of them began either in 1996 or 1997. ... As you can see for yourself, the answer to the oft-asked question, "Are there any compliant utilities?" is "No," at least not for those required to file with the SEC. I have not read any utility SEC filing in which a utility is estimating compliance before sometime in 1999, and the vast majority only speak of critical systems in their estimations, not full compliance. Words such as "triage," "prioritized," or the phrase "assessment to determine if assets are critical" are widely used. Twenty-seven and a half percent of utility filers either did not give any report what they had spent to date. Of those which did report specific cost estimates, just over 32% of the total utility SEC filers had spent 25% or LESS of their estimated total project costs. Nearly 45% of the total had spent one-third or less of total estimated costs. ... Link: http://www.euy2k.com/guest2.htm
