-Caveat Lector-
Robert Tatman wrote:
>
>"A.C. Szul" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>> I wager that if we were to ask everyone on this list --about 400 plus-- and
>folks on
>> the other lists (MC, REPUB, RUSH, XPOLT, etc.) you'll find not one person
>who has
>> been "polled" or "interviewed" by Gallup or any of its sister polling
>organizations.
>>
>> Hey, Mr. Andy Kohut, polling guru, who are you calling anyway?!
><snip>
>
>I've been polled by both Gallup and Roper--not in the immediate past, granted,
>but within the last year. People, like it or not, statistical sampling *does*
>work. Go ask a business major at your local college. The sample may seem
>small, but it really does indicate how the entire population feels. Just
>because the poll results don't jibe with your own preferences doesn't
>invalidate the poll.
>
>Bob
>
Well, polls work *in theory* but as Homer J. Simpson would add
"Communism works -- in theory." And your business major does well
to believe in them because marketing surveys are better designed
to find the truth than public opinion polls: the questions are
clear and avoid speculation on the part of the responder as much
as possible, and the surveys are short (always under 2 minutes).
Pollsters know that businesses are paying for specific information
and don't want to massage the numbers to get the best possible
spin. Politicians and media on the other hand...
One should also take into consideration the disclaimer found at
the end of every poll: + or - X%, 19 times out of 20. That X %
can easily double (or halve) responses on the low end. If 10% of
the population believes something, then a + or - of 3% gives a
range of 7-13% on the poll. And what happens to that 20th poll?
That depends on the purpose of whoever commissioned the poll.
After Canada and the U.S. signed the free trade agreement there
were regular polls commissioned by the government of Canada on
the opinion of the populace regarding free trade. Poll after
poll reported that Canadians were against free trade. Finally
there was a poll which indicated that Canadians were in favour of
free trade. The government stopped taking polls on free trade at
that point.
But the 20th poll isn't always used for blatant deception. Sometimes
it gives real information, such as in the yes-no-maybe case of a
three party election as happened two elections ago in B.C. There
was no doubt that the governing party was in trouble and it seemed
that the only question was whether the opposition would get enough
seats for a majority government. In fact the governing party
finished a poor third and the media jumped all over the pollsters
for being wrong. But the pollsters, both public and party, were
unanimous in claiming that they hadn't been fooled, pointing to the
"blip" or anomalous result in that (unpublished) 20th poll, which
indicated to them that voters might have a last minute change of
opinion in the voting booth. Why didn't they tell us that before?
Could it have anything to do with the fact that the third party
couldn't afford to hire a polling company? Hmmm. (Not to worry
though, the leader of the upstart party was deposed in a coup
and now has to fight his way back from third party, single seat
status which is unlikely because special interest candidates seek
to cling to his coattails)
There are plenty of ways that polls can be manipulated, such as
the order of the questions (would people give the same answers
if they read all the questions before answering any?) or the
failure to report all of the questions and their answers or the
increasing use of hot-button call-in polls which are completely
unscientific. It all comes down to the basic question of what good
are polls and does that benefit justify their increasing prolifera-
tion?
Gerry
btw I have participated in both polls and marketing surveys in the
past, but I now decline to participate. And don't forget that more
and more people are losing basic phone service and thus do not have
their opinions reflected in polls. How would you evaluate the
validity of polls on the topic of homelessness?
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