-Caveat Lector- ---- Begin Forwarded Message Xref: ix.netcom.com comp.software.year-2000:143697 http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_exnews/19990111_xex_bad_news_pow.shtml Bad news on power grid National Guard, FEMA plan for major Y2K breakdowns -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Editor's note: This is the third of a series of investigative reports on National Guard planning for the Y2K millennium bug. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By David M. Bresnahan © 1999 WorldNetDaily.com The Federal Emergency Management Agency, the National Guard and other federal agencies engaged in Y2K planning are now expecting loss of electrical power and other related problems before the year 2000. Nuclear power plants will begin to shut down in July, according to government sources. "As far as I'm concerned, the public has a right to know on this. It isn't classified, so I'm not violating any rules that I see. I might be hampering somebody's planning, but this needs to get out," an officer from the National Guard Bureau in Washington told WorldNetDaily in an exclusive interview. The officer, and several others who continue to provide information, believe they will be reassigned or disciplined if their identity were made known. "Then I'd be out of the loop," said one. The National Guard is planning COMEX/MOBEX, an exercise to practice a full mobilization of all 480,000 members of the National Guard. It will take place May 1 without the use of phones, television, or radio. The exercise is planned to prepare for a possible mobilization in the event computer failures from the Y2K bug cause major disruptions of power, telecommunications, transportation and banking. The officer believes the government should be warning people now rather than later. He says there is still time to prepare if the correct warnings are given. If people wait until the last minute, the disaster and panic will be greater. "The government is planning on keeping their yap shut," explained one of the officers. "They will keep saying everything is fine. They don't want the panic to begin before they are ready. "If I was running the show, I'd tell everyone in July. I'd rather have everything go to hell in a handbasket while it's warm and people aren't running around looking for shelter, than in the middle of winter." Problems for the nation's power system will begin in July, right at the time of highest demand for power because of long sunlight hours and the need for air conditioning. Not one nuclear power plant is Y2K compliant today, and there is strong indication that they will not be compliant by the end of the year. It takes at least four months to shut down a nuclear power plant, and power is needed to do it. "The NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) sent out a memo saying you will shut down on July 1, 1999, unless you're compliant," explained the officer. "That is 20 percent of the power grid, which is also equivalent to our strategic reserve for power. "It's also equivalent to 40 percent of all power generated east of the Mississippi. So now you've got the power grid maxed out already because the nukes are shut down, and if anything else goes wrong that's it." The National Guard believes the nation's power grid will collapse and is making plans accordingly, according to the sources. Panic and wide spread unrest are expected. Plans now call for a recall of all guard members placing an average of 4,000 soldiers in each of the 120 largest cities. The COMEX/MOBEX exercise will simulate that recall with the use of a special High Frequency radio system. "They're going to be toast," said one of the officers who spoke to WorldNetDaily over the weekend, speaking of the nation's power plants. "The latest plan I've heard," said another, "is to break the power grid into several hundred little grids. Right now it's one major grid broken into four subgrids. If they don't break it into several hundred little grids, in conjunction with the phone system not working properly, they won't get their feedback mechanism right and they'll burn up the lines." It is expected that there will be rolling blackouts and brownouts of power in the cities, with no power at all in rural areas. All available power will be directed to cities with nothing left to send to lower populations. Coal-fired power plants are also faced with a significant problem. Even if the power plants are Y2K compliant, which they are not says the source, they still may not produce power. "It takes a mile-long train per day to feed a coal fired power plant," the officer explained. "If the train system goes down, forget it. The trains are going to work, but you won't be able to track anything. "Say you're trying to get from St. Louis to Chicago, well you might end up in Des Moines, because the switches aren't working properly. If the switches go haywire you get derailments. "Your average power plant only has a four day supply of fuel. So even if the grid works properly, they can't get the fuel there," he predicted. Reports used by the planners at FEMA indicate that the train system will be shut down by the Y2K bug, and power plants will not be able to stockpile enough coal to keep going while the problem is fixed. Oil will be another problem. The National Guard and FEMA have plans to protect and control oil depots and refineries. "We're looking at the strategic oil depots around the country, and we're going to make plans to commandeer them. This is going to be a joint FEMA, U.S. Government type thing," explained one of the officers who has participated in the planning. A form of rationing is expected to take place. Supplies will be greatly diminished, so what is available will be given first to the federal government, then to the state governments, and if there is any left there will be long lines at public gas pumps with astronomical prices. "It will be a shared thing between the federal government and state, but as far as Joe Public getting his piece of the oil, he can forget it," predicted the guard officer. Much of the foreign oil that is imported into America will stop coming because of Y2K problems in foreign countries. Transportation problems combined with problems at foreign refineries will significantly impact the flow of oil He gave an example of oil imported from Venezuela. That oil makes up 17 percent of the nation's supply. At least three of the five refineries in Venezuela are planning to shut down at the end of the year. That loss will impact a minimum of 10 percent of the nation's oil, and Venezuela is only a small oil supplier. Larger nations sending refined oil to the U.S. are in a similar situation. The Alaskan pipeline is also a major concern. Unless the oil is kept flowing, it will freeze in the Alaskan winter. "We know right now that if the power is shut off for more than an hour, in the middle of winter, the oil will freeze solid because it will be too damn cold. Periodically along the way there are heating plants to maintain the viscosity," he explained. The power plants along the pipeline may not be able to operate because of Y2K, creating another danger. If the pipe freezes it could burst. To avoid a dangerous situation in the winter, the pipeline may be shut down before the Year 2000 even begins. Oil refineries are another problem. The National Guard has information which indicates that few of the refineries will be able to operate in the Year 2000, and they too will need to shut down early to avoid a dangerous situation. "When this hits (Y2K), some of the valves are automatically going to shut off and you're going to get similar to what a water hammer is," he warned. "You'll get pipes bursting at these plants. They (National Guard and FEMA) expect most of the refineries to shut down. It's cheaper to build a new refinery than it is to pull all the imbedded chips out of the old one." Much of the Y2K problem deals with computer chips that are permanently programmed incorrectly. The chips will not function correctly when the year 2000 arrives. Why isn't the public being informed officially of the problems detailed by the officers who spoke with WorldNetDaily? "They're worried about panic. Plain and simple. They're worried about panic. Put the panic off for as long as possible. That way people will continue to work, and programmers are in there working. Everyone else is happy. The economy is chugging along, and then all of a sudden wham it hits," explained one of the officers, and the others agreed. "We had pretty good intelligence that the Japanese were going to attack Pear Harbor, however it caught the common public off guard," said another. "It's the same type of situation for this. "Suddenly Clinton's going to be our Savior and rescue us. Well, that's not going to happen. He'll be the good guy just as Y2K is hitting, or he may do it a month ahead of time. It won't matter because it will be too late." The National Guard officers believe the public will learn a great deal about the real problems coming before the year 2000 because of the work of environmental groups to expose the safety issues related to nuclear power plants and other issues. The main message they conveyed is that the problems of Y2K will surface long before New Year's Eve. "The deck of cards has already been set up. Your house of cards so to speak. We're sitting on one, and a number of the strategic cards will have already been pulled out," he warned. "Our whole society is a three legged stool of power, telecom, and banking. Take any of those legs out - it's gone. The whole thing collapses underneath of it. You complicate that with just-in-time manufacturing, consumer confidence, and then you start looking at the other critical nodes and start seeing, especially in the power production, the dependencies which are required. You need power to generate power and if any time you have a logistical situation where dependencies loop in on themselves - that's always bad." ---- End Forwarded Message DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory', with its many half-truths, misdirections and outright frauds is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. 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