Subj: Expert Discussed Power Grid on Art Bell Show: Prognosis? Downright
SICK.
Date: 99-01-14 22:19:42 EST
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (John Hammell)
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED]
IAHF LIST: Many thanks to Ted Susu-Mago for this report. I hardly ever stay
up for Art Bell, but after reading this report I might listen to the archived
audio file on his website in order to hear everything Rodman said and also
hear what the power utility executives had to say. Bell's website is:
http://www.artbell.com
On the January 12 Art Bell show, Stuart H. Rodman detailed the risks facing
this nation's power grid and what the industry elite is planning to do about
it. In a nutshell, the problem that most worries the industry is the imbedded
chips, or "black boxes" as Rodman refers to them. The elites, in the form of
the National Electricity Reliability Counsel, or NERC for short, issued their
second quarterly report on January 11, stating that despite the herculean
efforts of those involved in work on these systems, it is inconceivable that
all the Y2K-vulnerable parts of the grid will be located and remediated before
the rollover date.
That's pretty plain language. To deal with this eventuality, NERC has devised
a rationing plan whereby all power providers in the U.S. will go to
electricity rationing one week before the rollover date and this rationing
will last at least through the first week of January WHETHER THERE ARE Y2K
PROBLEMS OR NOT!!
When this plan was first aired, 25% of all utilities in the country refused to
cooperate, but by January of this year, NERC had raised cooperation to 98%.
Although NERC, a creation of the Department of Energy, has no enforcement
powers, by applying pressures it has managed to gain this level of agreement.
This means in all likelihood, we can expect rationing on or shortly after
Christmas.
So who's likely to get rationed? Well, the plan is for each utility to fend
for itself. If you live in a part of the country where your utility depends
on being able to purchase power from other stations to satisfy peak demand
(i.e., holiday season, cold temperatures) you are at greatest risk. Your
utility will raise your awareness of the wisdom, advisability, even need to
conserve power with increasingly frequent public service messages to that
effect as you approach the critical rationing period. Therefore, if you
begin to hear such messages later this year, you can take that to mean there
is an increased likelihood that you live in an area likely to be rationed.
Rodman also described the industry's greatest fear, what it refers to as a
"common mode failure." Much of the equipment used throughout the industry
comes from relatively few suppliers of specialized equipment. Consequently,
the same equipment is used, in very large numbers, by many different electric
companies. This greatly increases the likelihood that if this generic
equipment is Y2K vulnerable and mission-critical, and it is not found and
remediated prior to the rollover, it will all fail simultaneously, time zone
by time zone. This, more than any other eventuality, could cause the entire
grid to black out. The Canadian government, remembering the ices storms of
Winter 97-98 which blacked out power for up to eight weeks at the coldest time
of the year, is anticipating that the effects of Y2K may be similar.
Y2K vulnerable and mission critical black boxes are plentiful. During
testimony before Senators Dodd and Bennet's Y2K subcommittee in early 1998,
one utility confessed that within its jurisdiction it had identified 300,000
such devices that would need to be remediated to avoid shutdowns and other
malfunctions. That's one utility. There are 200 bulk providers and over
three thousand generating plants in this country. This gives some dimensions
to NERC's statement that it is inconceivable that all such devices can be
fixed before Y2K.
Art Bell opened his phone lines to calls from electrical industry employees.
Caller after caller told of big problems within the industry and the fact that
top-level managers and CEO's are purchasing generators and solar systems for
their homes. Many of Rodman's statements were corroborated by callers who
added details and personal experiences to the growing picture of a very
vulnerable industry which, if nothing else, will impose rationing late this
year.
It was particularly worrisome that Rodman had little or no information on the
nuclear power plant situation, but he says he plans to make a concerted effort
to find out what is going on there and to report back through Art Bell to the
rest of America.
If you have not made provisions for this eventuality, get going. There is no
time to waste. Be safe, be well.
Ted
